30-Oct-2009
91306
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The numbers that David Vieau, the CEO of A123, quotes for PHEV energy savings of $1,200 per year and battery costs of $7,000 to $8,000 are misleading. (See Part 4, starting at the 4:10 mark.) What is he comparing the PHEV to - a Volt-sized ICE or a HEV?
At $3.00 per gallon, the energy cost for 30-mpg ICE is 10¢ per mile and, for a 50-mpg HEV, 6¢ per mile. In charge depleting, or electric, mode, a Volt will use 1/5 of a kWh per mile which, at 10¢ per kWh, is an energy cost of 2¢ per mile; in charge sustaining, or HEV, mode, its energy cost is 6¢ per mile.
If he is comparing the PHEV to an ICE, then the net energy savings are 8¢ per mile when the PHEV is in electric mode and 4¢ per mile when the PHEV is in HEV mode. A $1,200 energy savings implies an annual mileage of 15,000 to 20,000 miles compared to a more typical 12,000 miles. The price difference between a PHEV and an ICE would be over $10,000 since it would include the cost of power electonics and an electric motor as well as the battery cost. A $12,000 return on $10,000 is a rather lacklustre 2.9% return on investment (ROI).
If he is comparing the PHEV to a HEV, the net energy savings are 4¢ per mile in electic mode and 0¢ per mile in HEV mode. The only way to get $1,200 in annual savings is to rack up 30,000 miles in electric mode, i.e., charge and deplete a 40-mile all-electric range PHEV batteries at least twice a day, 365 days a year. So much for off-peak charging,10 years of battery life and a positive ROI. (A positive ROI is not the sole incentive for a PHEV purchase but it helps.)
In Europe with its high ($7 per gallon) fuel prices and environmental focus, PHEVs, and HEVs, are quite attractive from an ROI perspective and a GHG and pollution perspective, respectively.
Posted by: Northern Piker
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