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The Plug-In Car: If We Build It, Will They Come?

One hundred years ago, electric cars controlled a significant market share of the fledgling auto industry. Technologically, they were superior to the competition. "Fuel" was a close as an electric power outlet. Even in terms of cost, they were competitive with other custom-built automobiles of the time.

But by the mid-1910s, the advent of the electric starter, the spread of gasoline refueling stations and the adoption of the assembly line, steadily eroded their advantage and by 1920, virtually all passenger electric car production had ceased.

Now they're back -- starting with the Tesla Roadster -- with more EVs and PHEVs to follow, so, the question Richard Curtin asked some 3,000 randomly selected individuals was how much of a premium would they be willing to pay to purchase a plug-in electric car? One-third said they'd be "eager" to purchase one as long as the vehicle didn't cost more than $2,500US than a comparable vehicle. At $10,000 the market evaporated, he notes in the above video. Presumably, this is where the U.S. government came up with their $7,500 tax credit; however, as Curtin points out a tax credit doesn't actually reduce the price of the car or the rate at which it's financed. So, in theory, a $7,500 tax credit sounds good. In reality, it may provide very little actual incentive for buyers(1).

And who are those buyers, Curtin's team wanted to know? Generally the same people who bought hybrids like the Prius. They are well educated, earn more than $100,000 annually and own their own home. A subset of these are likely to be candidates buy cars like the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf.

On a critical technical note: during the recording of Dr. Curtin's comments, our wireless audio receiver picked up static from some unknown source during the second half of his talk, so you may wish to simply skip to the end. The situation largely clears up for subsequent speakers and the follow on panel Q&A.

(1) We at EV World note, however, that unlike Curtin's somewhat pessimistic (pragmatic?) findings, PG&E's Peter Darbee states during his comments that he believes there is going to be much more demand for plug-ins than many believe, but then his company serves Northern California, long a hotbed for hybrid and electric car advocacy and adoption.