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EV World Open Access Article
Saab 9-X Concept car on display at 2008 LA Auto Show
Saab 9-X Air concept car at the 2008 LA Auto Show. In addition to a hybrid-electric drive system, the turbocharged engine will run on E85 as part of Sweden's effort to eliminate oil imports by 2020.

'Lectric Lip Service

Am I being paranoid in thinking carmakers really don't want to build electric cars?


By Bill Weaver



Open Access Article Originally Published: December 10, 2008

What a difference a few months make. Now that gasoline is $1.49 gallon and oil hovering around $40 a barrel, what's happened to interest in electric vehicles (EVs)?

From my perspective, it would appear to be waning now that the American consumers -- not known for their long attention span even on a good day -- now seem preoccupied with an economy in a tailspin and stopping the bleeding on their own personal financial situation. The issues that were important six months ago under the Bush administration -- the war in Iraq, nuclear enrichment in Iran, genocide, terrorism, and the environment -- all may as well have occurred under the U.S. Presidency of Millard Fillmore (1850-1853). They're distant memories.

But what will happen when the economy finds its floor, and demand for oil picks back up? The forces that cut the price of gasoline in half in a few short months, i.e., the extremely inelasticity of demand, will work in reverse. And those forces will be greatly bolstered by the burgeoning populations in developing countries that will present a dramatic increase in the world demand for automotive transportation -- in an environment of peak oil and largely depleted oil fields. The price will skyrocket to unprecedented levels, and so will the level of desperation of the world's governments -- and the acts of hostility they will wage on one another. If that doesn't suggest enough suffering, let's not forget about the increasingly terrible effects that global climate change will wreak upon our world each year.

So when will EVs provide some relief? Let's hope the start-ups don't lose their motivation and financial backing, because here's the sad news: don't look to the traditional OEMs. The American car companies, as everyone knows, are circling the drain, ruined by several decades of a spectacular blend of arrogance, greed, and stupidity -- resulting in the wanton neglect of their customers' true automotive needs. Even the reasonably healthy Japanese manufacturers are in a desperate struggle to hoard cash, slash R&D investment (as well as production), and are certainly in no hurry to develop or usher in a new automotive paradigm.

I was amused by what I heard at the L.A. Auto Show this year. I spoke with as many people whose companies have promised pure EVs as I could possibly find. I asked them about their plans for product launch, and to be frank with me as to any impediments they see to those launches. And what a list of impediments there was! One, a key executive in one of the world's largest conglomerates told me, “Oh, just now we're taking our first, critically important step to our product introduction. Soon we'll be delivering a few EVs to the local power companies so they can test them.”

Test what, exactly? I thought, not wishing to appear rude by voicing such an obvious question. Do power companies really they need to conduct tests to confirm that electric cars will draw energy -- say 20 or 30 kWhs or so daily -- usually at night? Then, if the cars and trucks happen to be V2G capable, can't they predict that some of them will be plugged in during the day and add some value in terms of grid stability? I tried not to show it, but I was deeply suspicious. Was this really a “critically important first step,” or was it simply what he had been told to tell people like me, while his company essentially stalls for time?

Another OEM representative -- perhaps a bit more candid, said, “It doesn't matter what we have ready; we're not launching anything right now. In fact, we're canceling launches of cars regardless of what's inside them, since people aren't buying cars.”

Now that made sense to me. Let's be honest: regardless of the state of the economy, the last thing the OEMs want is the transition to electrics -- now or ever. EVs represent identically zero upside to the OEM business model, since they represent a future in which:

Far few units will be sold in the lifetime of the almost every consumer; very few customers will routinely buy a new car every two or three years.

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19 comments so far...

11-Dec-2008
65116
   Thank you for a well written article. I for one am NEVER going to buy another gas powered car. The company Think(www.think.no) is coming out with the Think City car in the USA next year and I am going to buy one asap. They will be low maintenance, very cheap to fuel(I never drive more than 50 miles a day), and they are %95 recyclable!
Posted by: Matt Caldwell

11-Dec-2008
65124
   I got a chill up my spine when I read Bill Weaver's article. I must have suppressed my apprehensions, but Bill brought them forward. Humans, driven by greed as we seem to be, are likely to ignore the voices of reason, or, worse, condemn them as being "fear-mongering". Sounds familiar to subscribers to this newsletter, of course. To add a note of conspiracy theory to the mix, the power of the vested interests in the auto, oil, coal, etc. industries leave me wondering if there is a Kennedy-like fate in the future for President-elect Obama. Of course, such an event would be shown to be the work of a disturbed individual, and any possible collusion between big business, unions, the CIA/FBI and even organised crime would be dismissed out of hand, if, indeed, it is given any credence in the media. It all has an eerily familiar feel about it, like going to a movie and seeing a new film whose plot line is exactly like an older film. I really fear for upcoming generations, because they will inherit the god-awful mess we have created and seem bound to perpetuate until we are all freezing in the dark. (The last phrase was part of an utterance from back around 1980 by the then-Premier of Alberta, Ralph Klein, in reference to the demands of Eastern Canadian interests for access to Alberta's large deposits of petroleum. His remark was slightly profane and hurt his popularity not a bit.) I hope Mr. Obama is able to push his agenda, and the Secret Service can keep him alive!
Posted by: Barrie Templeton

11-Dec-2008
65117
   Two thumbs up for Bill Weaver. His article article should be posted on the front pages of all major newspaper and the word spread all over the world.
Posted by: Roberto DePaschoal

11-Dec-2008
65119
   Absolutely I don't think those carmakers are too interested in selling electric cars were several reasons... The first, if you've seen the movie who killed the electric car, you will agree that we believe that they sold them selves out to the oil companies years ago. A General Motors is talking about bringing out the Volt they say it's going to make about 40 miles before it needs a charge! That is simply ridiculous! More than 10 years ago when General Motors had Ev1's driving around the streets of Los Angeles, they were said to get 150 miles before they needed a charge! This was over 10 years ago! Tell me that the technology has not changed in that period of time!? And even at that, they still put a small gas engine in it so that even the old buyers will still have to be addicted to oil like everybody else. Eventually they'll have to go and buy gas as well! But it gets worse it's not just the gas sales, the electric cars are practically maintenance free! There's no oil to put in them, there are no oil filters, you won't be taking the one to a lube station anytime soon! There's no exhaust, so there won't be any need for catalytic converters, exhaust systems, tailpipes etc. It's completely putting the people in independent state and clearly, the large corporations don't want to see that! If you couple an electric car to rooftop solar panels and a wind generator, you'll be totally self-sufficient and will not have to rely on third parties! People don't seem to realize but hundreds of years ago people were self-sufficient -- not even hundreds even if we go back to a 100 years. There was no reliance on other companies to make their life "better" they used to tend their own crops, and "reap what they sewed" If this apparently new world that is supposedly so much more advanced that's causing the dependency! Is that advancement?
Posted by: Car Buff

11-Dec-2008
65123
   Mr. Weaver's statement that solar thermal electricity can quickly be developed to provide our electrical needs may be unduly optimistic.

The concept of solar thermally generated electricity is not new. It has also been successfully tested. However, I question whether the technology yet exists to store either enough heat or electricity so that sufficient power will be available when solar heat is not available, i.e., at night or when there are clouds. There are ways to store heat and electricity, but they tend to be very expensive.

It is likely that economical storage methods will become available. The question is whether they are available right now.
Posted by: Frank Eggers


11-Dec-2008
65125
   Great well written article need more of the same. Agree with comments also as I will not need a car powered by an internal combusion engine as distance travelled in city is limited to 25- 40 miles two or three times a week. In Canada each province gives approval for electric cars and I hope Manitoba will be # 4 !
Posted by: Kenneth Roy

12-Dec-2008
65135
   I think the car companies will drag out the launch of electric cars until they can lobby their way out of having to sell them, or they figure out a way to have a continuing income stream from the vehicle after it's sold.

The Th!nk car looks very promising to me, except they won't sell you the entire vehicle. They sell the carcass and driveline, less the battery pack that they will be happy to lease you. They say it's so you don't have to worry about how long it lasts. Sounds kind of like buying a new washing machine and the salesperson trying to get you to buy the extended warranty. And just like the response I give the washing machine salesperson, to the fine folks at Th!nk, I will just say NO.
Posted by: Mark Chapmon


14-Dec-2008
65151
   Thanks so much for the wonderful comments. To write back on a few issues:

I believe in the basic premise of “Who Killed The Electric Car.” I think the take-away is that GM realized that there was no way on earth to make a profit with EVs, and dropped the project like a hot rock. Why they didn’t know that going in is anyone’s guess. I actually asked Chris Paine and Chelsea Sexton that very question at a screening of the film earlier this year; they didn’t have an answer either.

I’m not an expert on solar thermal, but as far as I have know, the best answer to the question of energy storage generated by this means is molten salt (which you can Google). Molten salt has a specific heat 30 times that of water—and again, the compound is obviously extremely common and inexpensive. A company called Ausra (Palo Alto, CA) will be unveiling a working model of this technology shortly, I understand.

To be fair, all this does require considerable expansion and re-enforcement of the grid, including high-voltage DC power transmission over long distances, etc. But the costs pale in comparison to staying on fossil fuels while our quality of life steadily deteriorates into the dirt—all so that a few rich people can get even richer.

Re: Obama, though I remain optimistic, I fear that the political process will force compromises that will moderate his ability to create the kind of change we all hoped for and so desperately need. In particular, I’m concerned about the appointments he’s made; if I were one people who campaigned for him based on his position on the war in Iraq, I’d be pretty steamed.

Re: Th!nk and other EV products/solutions that force the buyer into uncomfortable places (like Better Place), I’m reminded of Thomas Edison. When he was trying to change consumers’ energy paradigm from gas to electricity 130 years ago, he wisely didn’t want to alter people’s ways of thinking any more than he absolutely had to. This is why the original electric lights in people’s houses were wall sconces, even though he knew it would be easier to light a room from the ceiling. There were no ceiling gas lamps (for obvious reasons) and so he didn’t build ceiling electric lamps, simply so people would experience as little change as possible.

To me, the idea that this big-3 bailout could be effective is a joke. The arrogant thieves who lead the companies were headed down the drain even in the good times. Do we think they'll do better in the bad times? And with Congress forcing them to build cars that (in all honesty) won't make them any money? The idea is ridiculous.

Re: humanitarian CEOs, I’m continually astounded at people’s greed. I’ve done pretty well in business, but I certainly have never seen the attraction of making money by ruining our world and destroying the future of our kids. I’d rather not have to explain to St. Peter at the Pearly Gates that I had led a company, once the largest on the planet, that created enormous profits by covertly and deliberately ruining the earth’s oceans and skies, and that my life’s work made my country, once the world’s greatest, into a slave of sworn foreign enemies. I somehow don’t think he’d be too impressed.

Thanks again for the kind words. - Bill
Posted by: Bill Weaver


14-Dec-2008
65153
   Bill Weaver is likely correct: none of the big automakers want genuinely effective electrics or plug in hybrid electrics. But as the public becomes educated, the demand will make them happen regardless. Gasoline is already going up, diesel and jet fuel never dropped that much.

If the horrible happened, next in line is Biden (pro EV) and then Pelosi (pro EV). As for solar, using Bob Lutz numbers, the cost of moving a VOLT 20 miles @ 65MPH on grid tie solar is $0.54 As one writer already explained, simple measures like efficiency and insulation can handle the space conditioning side of energy consumption. 100 years ago the gasoline powered automobile and the diesel powered truck were embraced by the public because big cities were drowning in manure. Hopefully people will wise up now before they drown in pollution and debt!
Posted by: Richard Poor


14-Dec-2008
65155
   When I woke up one morning and discovered that Hank Paulson,US Treasury Secretary under the most criminal administration this country has ever suffered under,informed a select group of legislators that unless he got 700 billion dollars with absolutely no strings attached the country was doomed,I knew that all the rules had changed that govern anything and everything in the USA.I realized that a plan that had been in the works for years had finally been put in place. The OEM's won't build EV's. Duh! It's all part of the greater plan. Please folks I beg you. Start connecting the dots. In 1980 the USA is a net lender nation. The largest manufacturer and exporter in the world. Had a vibrant and healthy middle class. Twenty eight years after the first worst president ever to hold the office, we are now bankrupt and in dept to every country on earth,we manufacture almost nothing of value, and our dept to every lender in the world can hardly be calculated. Why are we not all on the streets in mass protest. We are going down fast. Check out a web site called myamericaproject.com. Check out Naomi Wolf. All the so called crisis we are seeing is planned. No doubt about it. If we want EV's,a decent economy,affordable health care etc,etc we must rise up and do what is necessary. I'll let you decide what I mean by "do what is necessary" but at this late hour in the deep sleep we all have been under for decades the solution is probably not going to be pretty or subtle. BTW. Can anyone blame the governor of Illinois for being a thief and liar. He was only following the example of the current criminals occupying the White House. Doesn't justify his actions but I can understand why he felt he was immune from prosecution.At least he did not follow the example of mass murder that his "superiors" had set.And what does all this have to do with lack of EV's. Probably more than you realize or perhaps fear to acknowledge.
Posted by: lawrence elliott

14-Dec-2008
65159
   We are being lied to...we love our 2000 Ford Ranger EV NiMH....why isn't Ford making this right now? THEY DON'T WANT TO!
Posted by: Anthony Cimino

13-Dec-2008
65139
   Bill Weaver is right on the money of course. The main problem with EV's for the automotive dinosaurs is simple: they don't fit their century old businessmodel. This businessmodel depends heavily on aftermarket part sales and a dealernetwork that needs the income from maintenance and repairs to stay alive. Related to this another "shortcoming"of EV's may be that it maybe hard to control their life cycle because they consist of relatively few parts, only a handful of them being moving parts which are easily replaced when they fail. I imagine GM's EV-1 project caused an outcry from their vast dealership network that recognised a major threat to it's future. It's clear that if taxmoney allows GM to survive the current crisis without major restructuring there is no way that a BEV will ever role off a GM production line.When GM destroyed the last remnants of it's electric car program in 2003 in a decisive scorched earth kind of way it did so because it knew that it could never survive an electric future without transforming into a fundamentally different company.
Posted by: Chris O

13-Dec-2008
65143
   I’ve been having the same thoughts as Bill Weaver for a while now. I would like my next city car to be an EV. But I’ve wanted an EV since reading about the Honda EV plus in 1997. More than 10 years ago. I’m still waiting - just no longer holding my breath.

The relevance of Mr. Weaver’s article becomes even more salient when you consider that the formula for building an EV should be really quite simple – people are building their own affordable versions across the country - out of spare parts – right now. And building an EV should be cost effective – in mass production. Yet auto manufacturers act like they are being asked to create a new kind of mathematics.

I predict the next series of “stall” tactics will revolve around cost issues. Why hasn’t any company tried to introduce a safe, affordable, city EV with a range of 50 miles? If battery costs (e.g., lithium ion/polymer) represent a major impediment to the introduction of affordable EVs as many have indicated – developing shorter range EVs designed for city errands and commuting would seem ideal – as they use fewer batteries – and would cost much less to build. Yet the corporate answer seems to be that “consumers want an EV that can travel 400 miles per charge”, and that consumers want it to do everything – including replacing their main vehicle at home. Do consumers really want this? Or are corporations trying to “create” this need – knowing that an affordable 400 mile battery is still years down the road? How many homes have only one vehicle in their driveway anyway?

If a genuine need exists for a longer range battery, then make 3 battery packages available – like 50 mile, 100 mile, and 200 mile packages. The first mp3 players didn’t require 100 continuous hours of playing time, a huge battery pack, and a cost of $1000. They started small – 10 hours of playing time – at a more affordable price. And they sold well. They continue to sell well. Different iterations now have much longer playing times, larger storage options, and are even more affordable.

A city range EV would be the perfect second (or third?) vehicle. My concern is that corporations will finally make EVs available – but people will be forced to buy a stripped-down entry-level hatchback, with a 400 mile range – for $40,000. I can think of no better way to ensure that people will be put off from purchasing an EV. When consumers scoff at this – the automakers will respond with the all-too-familiar “consumers aren’t purchasing Evs because there is no interest – there is no market”. If Apple sold the first Ipod for $1000 how much interest would have been generated in this product?

I believe there is a market for a mass produced, comfortable, safe, and affordable EV. If Mitsubishi makes their MiEV available to the public – for under $20,000 (as they have indicated) – my waiting will be over. But I have a feeling that the first legitimate EVs won’t come from North America or Japan. Like other affordable electronic goods - they will come from China, Korea, or Taiwan. And then the Big 3 will cry foul and ask for more bail out money.
Posted by: Michael Moland


13-Dec-2008
65148
   Bill, what a brilliant article. I just wish the CEO's of these car manufacturers would start thinking in terms of humanities long term needs and show real integrity, social conscience, social responsibility and love for future generations. They are surely amongst the least evolved of humankind in thinking only of their own back pocket and short term profits.
Posted by: Paul Lamb

15-Dec-2008
65163
   Well, they've certainly been lying to us about the health of the economy for the last year or so. I think the class warfare has now stared, and the rich have struck the first blow. The real problem with solar thermal is water, unless we come up with a different working fluid. It's not so much that the car companies have sold out to the oil companies as much as it is that the car companies are the puppets of the oil companies. If a car company gets uppity, the oil companies can just reformulate the gasoline so that company (and only that company)'s cars no longer run well. Better things through chemistry.
Posted by: Ben C

16-Dec-2008
65175
   Bill Weaver; of course GM knew EV's weren't a viable proposition for them when they started the EV-1 project. Not within their century old businessmodel anyway. They only started it at gunpoint: the CARB regulations. And only as a backup plan in case their plan A would fail: getting the CARB regulations out of the way through a lawsuit. It's a bit puzzling why they did such a good job of what was basically something they wanted to axe the second CARB was dead, but that may have something to do with GM's corporate culture of rivalling fiefdoms. A bunch of enthusiastic engineers operating under the radar of headquarters. But none of this matters anymore. Yesterday, December 15th, a day that will live on in infamy (in Detroit) China's BYD launched the world's first ever practical, affordable mass produced PHEV. This car offers a longer electric range at half the price and two years ahead of it's only Detroit rival: the GM Volt. No more need to ask for whom the bell tolls I quess: it so clearly tolls for Detroit.
Posted by: Chris O

16-Dec-2008
65180
   Am I being paranoid in thinking carmakers really don't want to build electric cars? Yes you are being paranoid. Batteries are still very expensive per mile. Hopefully Firefly energy will change that else maybe safer motor cycles/scooters could take off. See the BMW c1 2000 for a practicle soultion to congetion parking and fuel use.
Posted by: jw ogden

25-Dec-2008
65280
   Social Engineer Jacque Fresco thinks he has the answer to our problems.

Please watch all of this movie and see if you agree with him:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912

You can learn more about Jacque and his ideas at www.thevenusproject.com

i have no connection with Jacque other than finding his ideas very interesting.
Posted by: michael knight


29-Dec-2008
65332
   Thanks for this reply re: Zeitgeist. I found this very interesting indeed, as it reminded me of all the reading I did as a much younger man on political philosophy—especially social ideals and ideal societies.

I’d like to point out to the makers of the film that they seem to be suggesting that we as a civilization trade in one set of corruption (our current corporatocracy and greed/aggression/money-based world) for another. How do they propose to move to and sustain this “resource-based” economy? Who will decide what technologies we implement, how much food we grow, etc? These decisions are currently made by market forces, which, I freely admit, have become monstrously corrupt. But SOME force is needed; the resource-based world won’t happen by magic; someone or something would need to lead it and manage it. Aren’t they concerned about the idea that “absolute power corrupts absolutely?” Are they suggesting that it could it be achieved with the early 20th century idea of anarchy, i.e., that spontaneously generated micro-governments would emerge on an ad hoc basis?

Again, thank you for posting. Please feel free to share this with anyone who can speak to these issues and encourage then to write to me.
Posted by: Bill Weaver


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