A white paper proposal to convert qualified vehicles in current fleet to plug-in hybrids.
Open Access Article Originally Published: April 24, 2009
This is an abridged version of the Cash For Clunkers Paves the Way to Retrofit Gas Guzzlers technical white paper.
Abstract
This Analysis compares two policy options for vehicles already on the road -- 250 million in the U.S. and 900 million globally -- that will continue to burn fossil fuels for decades. Large-scale, properly tuned policies can substantially reduce these vehicles' carbon footprint. Two solutions focusing on older low-efficiency vehicles are scrappage programs, which are gaining increasing support in many countries, and conversions to plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs), an emerging new option.
This paper by the California Cars Initiative, a U.S. NGO, describes the characteristics of conversion architectures and the performance of early prototypes. It also details the results of its analytic model, quantifying projected market penetration of new and converted plug-in vehicles from 2010-2050. It combines this with a second model, based on GREET and other sources, to evaluate these vehicles' potential contributions to reduced oil use and CO2. This model factors in energy used in building vehicles as a percentage of lifetime energy use and evaluates ways to conserve this embedded energy. Derived from these comparisons, a dual strategy combining scrappage of some vehicles, and converting many pickups trucks, SUVs and vans to plug in, emerges as a way to maximize the value of public funds.
Two policy initiatives that can together significantly reduce oil use by 2030, and help launch a new global industry in the process -- difficult to achieve solely with new plug-in vehicles -- are 1) to increase government tax and other incentives for certified converted vehicles to match those already in place for new plug-in vehicles; and 2) applying scrappage in a focused way so that each scrapped vehicle's replacement has at least double its efficiency, and so that instead of crushing them, sound though inefficient vehicles can instead be converted to plug in.
Introduction: Scrappage Expands its Aims
An old idea is coming back -- with a new twist: governments are paying to buy up and recycle or crush old, high-emissions, low-efficiency gasoline vehicles. "Cash for Clunkers" (legislators call them "scrappage") programs, devised to get the dirtiest vehicles off the road, are now also seen as a way to get two more wins: improved fuel-efficiency and boosted new vehicle sales. Both President Obama's Automotive Task Force and the U.S. Congress see this as a lifeline to domestic automakers. Over a dozen other nations have been motivated to develop scrappage programs.
The vehicles already on the road -- 250 million in the U.S. and 900 million globally -- will continue to guzzle fossil fuels and spew carbon dioxide for at least another decade or more. At last, people are realizing that their impact can be lessened. But it will take large-scale, properly tuned incentives.
In a broad survey, we explore how scrappage works and consider the implications of current proposals. Then we go a step further, asking, "For some vehicles, might there be a more effective use of a U.S. $3,000 -$6,000 incentive?"
We introduce an innovative, game-changing option, largely unrecognized to date: We can "fix" millions of large gas-guzzlers through retrofits. We show that converting existing vehicles -- especially certain heavy pickups, SUVs and vans -- into plug-in hybrids or all-electric vehicles can avert some of scrappage's unintended market consequences, while saving lots of energy. We demonstrate how much more rapidly plug-in conversions can scale than the expected slow introduction of new plug-in vehicles. In a "best of both worlds" strategy, we suggest that incentives for plug-in conversions can be significantly increased -- and carefully combined with bounties for scrapping vehicles. This way, the world gets a quicker way to reduce greenhouse gases and imported oil, automakers and service companies get a boost, and local communities get green retrofit jobs.
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Reader Comments
5 comments so far...
30-Apr-2009
66666
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Extant 'new' vehicles can be converted to economic fuel-burners or BEVs. By adding an HHO-gas generator to an ethanol-modified, biodiesel, or Compressed Natural Gas [CNG] conversion, high performance, clean-engines and long-ranges can be achieved...For short to medium daily range, though, an electric conversion using a DC motor, electronic speed controller, a standard 3-6 speed transmission and any spe- cial DC accessories such as a DC-DC converter to keep the 12 VDC accessory bat- tery charged up and a 12 VDC vacuum pump [to operate the power brakes] is advised.
While most 'conversions' are sub-compact thru medium sized vehicles, larger ones can be used if they are 're-geared' for city/suburban travel...Even mid-sized cars and trucks [if not loaded to heavily] can operate on kits intended for smaller, lighter autos.
The takeout 'gas' engine and heavy, usually automatic, transmission can be sold or traded for a smaller, lighter transmission and some of the batteries...If one wants the conversion to be successful, the proper kit shud be chosen, based upon the weight, drag, and desired speed/range of the finished project: Be informed--investigate any already-done conversions to assure a winner...
Posted by: Aaron Allen
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30-Apr-2009
66667
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I'm a retired electrical engineer and think that there are many opportunity for making more necessary jobs and reduce the oil dependence of this country teching the people to change the excess power of light trucks and SUV for some hybrid retrofit that uses much less gasoline and could regenerate energy recharging the batteries.
Our Planet Earth and a lot of unemployed will be gratefull if this happens.
Lets hope!
Thomas H. Dirickson - San Diego CA
Posted by: Thomas Dirickson
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27-Apr-2009
66640
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This is an EXCELLENT concept!
If we could get a $4-5,000 income-tax credit on a $20,000 conversion, we'd do it.
Our beautiful 1998 Pontiac Bonneville SLE now sits in the garage 95% of the time as we tool around in a 2008 Prius. We can't justify the emissions or the gas cost of the Bonny. But we'd love to make it a plug-in hybrid.
Before we stopped using that car a year ago, our mileage conformed closely to the EPA rating (17 / 25 mpg). We'd easily triple that.
If this program is enacted, it should be open to ALL American citizens -- regardless of income.
We need to act dramatically to reduce air and water pollution.
And stop enriching the undemocratic countries who own the oil: not exactly a trustworthy, tolerant, or humane bunch (communist Venezuela, fascist Russia, and Islamic dictatorships in Saudi Arabia & Iran).
The more people are induced to convert their old gas-guzzlers, the better. Let's get going and get off gasoline ASAP!
Posted by: JB RV
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30-Apr-2009
66658
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I'm happy to see Wagoner gone from GM.
Fat, Dumb, and Lazy is no way to go through life.
Posted by: Free Bird
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07-May-2009
66726
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Sorry but a gas guzzler would become a watt waster. If it's to big and weighs tons it's too heavey to be a good any fuel car. A hummer that sucks gas also sucks amps.
Let's only convert cars that get 30+ mpg to start with. Then it would have a prayer of becoming a good EV. In fact I alway felt GM missed the mark by making the small off special materials EV1 when they could have converted the Saturn SL1 for peanuts and invested the extra in better batteries. My SL1 weighed just 2200 lbs and got 45 mpg on the highway all the time. In town it was dumb and would idle away mpg at stop signs and lights.
Also if we convert them lets only use non toxic long lasting lithium batteries. No lead wright , short life ,toxic acid filled lead acid batteries. They also need to only use AC power systems like the AC-150 controller and AC motor from ACPropulsion. Then you get regenerative braking, V2G and super efficient transportation.
The new charging connection J-1772 should also only have a Time Of Day connection and power source. No charging should be allowed during peak hours.
If we did it right it could be a very good thing. If we don't EVs will get a bad image for reasons that are easily avoided. Lets do it right and not try some cheap options.
Posted by: jim stack
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