Electric-powered Bullet Train Japan | EV World Is Now Powered By Plug-In Conversions Corporation
PREMIUM LOGIN
ADVERTISE ON EV WORLD
Reach tens of thousands of key EV industry drivers: from designers to investors and, of course, customers. CLICK TO LEARN MORE

Also check out EV WORLD MARKETSPACE.
 

EV WORLD EXCLUSIVE ARTICLE
Dr. Robert Hirsch speaking at AFVI 2008 conference
Dr. Robert Hirsch speaking at AFVI 2008 conference.

The Stonewalling of Peak Oil



By Steve Andrews

Robert Hirsch on the deliberate avoidance by the U.S. government to talk about peak oil.


Open Access Article Originally Published: September 09, 2009

Robert L. Hirsch is the lead author of a seminal report--Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management—written for the US Dept. of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE, NETL) and released in early 2005. He has remained very active with respect to his concerns about peak oil. He will be a presenter at the ASPO-USA conference in Denver, October 11-13, 2009. Reprinted from the September 7, 12009 edition of Peak Oil Review, a publication of ASPO-USA.

Question: What have been your primary areas of focus during your energy career?

Hirsch: I started out in nuclear power. Then I did fusion research and later managed the government fusion program. I spent a lot of time with renewables over the years, including managing the federal renewables program. From there I went to the oil industry where I managed long range refining research and then synthetic fuels. Later I managed upstream research and development—exploration and production of oil and gas. Still later, I spent time in the electric power industry—all aspects of electric power. And then I got into energy studies and have been doing them for a number of years with Rand, SAIC, and now MISI. That's it from the work standpoint; from another standpoint I've been involved with the National Academies [of Science] in energy studies since 1979 and have been involved in almost every aspect of energy through the Academies, either as a committee participant or as Chairman of their Board on Energy and Environmental Systems.

Question: When did you first learn about the peak oil issue?

Hirsch: I learned about peak oil after I got out of the oil industry, because there was essentially no talk about it when I was involved. In the early 2000s I did a study for the DOE dealing with long range energy R&D planning. One of the six drivers that I came up with was peak oil; I had never really thought about it prior to that. It's kind of a “tar baby”; once you get your hands into it, you can't get your hands off of it. When oil production goes into decline, it's going to be a defining issue for humanity. So I've been involved for six or seven years in analyzing oil peaking and its mitigation.

Question: How did the 2005 peak oil study for DOE's NETL come about?

Hirsch: It was basically my creation. I was working with DOE NETL at the time, and they gave me a great deal of leeway to look into important subjects. I felt that peak oil was extremely important, so I did some study on my own and then proposed to NETL that I do a much larger study, with Roger Bezdek and Bob Wendling, who are extremely capable guys, who I had worked with along the way, and who were very pragmatic about energy and the real world. NETL accepted. I already was under contract, and they added Roger and Bob.

We coordinated closely with NETL as we did the study, so they had input and knew what was coming. But when they saw the final report, it shocked them, even though they could see what was coming. This is nothing negative about people at NETL, but when you're thinking about other things most of the time, bad news creeping up on you doesn't necessarily capture your attention immediately.

When the report was done, management at NETL really didn't know what to do with it because it was so shocking and the implications were so significant. Finally, the director decided that she would sign off on it because she was retiring and couldn't be hurt, or so I was told. The report didn't get widely publicized. It somehow was picked up by a high school someplace in California; eventually NETL put it on their website. The problem for people at NETL—and these are really good people—was that they were under a good deal of pressure to not be the bearers of bad news.

GO TO NEXT PAGE >>


Times Article Viewed: 8039
Next >>



Reader Comments

First Name Last Name
Email Address:

[Please check your spelling. Do NOT use double quotes.
Use <P> to separate paragraphs.]

TYPE THE ABOVE CODE WORD INTO THE FORM FIELD


9 comments so far...

10-Sep-2009
67972
  

Robert Hirsch has done more for the awareness of peak oil than anyone else. 

He was a credible source in a position of authority.  It's too bad that they decided to stifle his voice, but it's out there. 

I don't think the US government can do much about the problem now.  Any way you look at it there will be a lot of pain.  We are so fossil fuel dependent that any change will be a catastrophe.  Nobody is getting out of their gas cars.  Those of us who drive EV's know that another transportation system is possible, but the majority can't understand it. 

We only have a couple of years more of business as usual, if we're lucky. 

Then it gets nasty. 


Posted by: Iver Lofving

10-Sep-2009
67979
  

It is so hard to figure out what will actually wake people up to the fact that we need some rapid and major changes made to our economic and transportation policies and our mode of interacting with other humans and our Earth. I guess we can only wait for the worst, see who survives and rebuild a new global society from the remaining ashes. How depressing!


Posted by: Melinda Sedgley

10-Sep-2009
67973
  

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090901143317.htm

The rapid advance of alternative energy technologies seems the only hope for mitigating the peak oil problem. The above is one such and may rapidly mature; but  a large number of hydrogen storage solutions are under similar development.. Solar/fossil fuel combination plants are another, (China already seems to be forging ahead of the rest of the world in this area) laser fusion, thin solar cells printed on aluminum foil, vertical farms in urban settings, etc. are developments to watch. One more oil scare will put politics on hold as there can be no divisive committments in survival.  What will then be required will be obvious to all; the national push to energy independence which will invoke Kennedy's moonshot end of the decade pledge as it's previous example. Government by crisis is the product of our present democratic formulation and only a great idea can forge a unity in purpose and vision.


Posted by: Bruce Blair

11-Sep-2009
67992
  

After three years of near-panic looking for a way to quickly mass-produce a viable alternative, the only method I've been able to construct involves solar balloons using thin-film photovoltaics, conductive tethers and the 90 billion cubic feet of helium that is lost forever in the processing of natural gas in the US every year. Fields of balloon arrrays would not only produce cheap renewable energy but when placed in desert regions would act as reflectors of Heat from the heat-sink our planet has become. Of course, an over-the-horizon coast-to-coast grid would alleviate much of the need to store solar power overnight. The big trouble is trying to find an ear for a good idea, especially when no-one wants to hear there's a problem to begin with.


Posted by: William Jorgensen

11-Sep-2009
67993
  

Another guy who probably rides to work in a limo, cab, or on light rail, subway, etc. Is not as affected by fuels-cost as the grunt worker who gasses up daily and drives 40-100 miles one-way to work [can't afford to move--doesn't dare move cuz job cud end]. It is time that we declare that petroleum is a strategic substance--not an ordinary, speculative 'commodity' which is jacked up-n-dn and gambled-with. We shud get as many drivers as possible into battery electric vehicles [BEV]. Those who must have fuelled vehicles shud convert to CNG, ethanol, or bio-fueloil--plus HHO [Hydroxy gas]. There shud be small, regional fuel-distilleries/bio-oil refineries--all solar powered as much as possible. Like The War [WW II] we shud have fixed prices on all fuels and only buy 'mid-fractions' [the good stuff in the middle] from OPEC and other producers for $50 a 'Drum' [200Liters/52.91 US Gal.] Not a penny more! The wasteful advertizing and marketing of fuels shud end [like tobacco products!] If people need fuel they know where to get it--most fuels are NOT what's on the sign or pump anyway!  For about $1.20-$1.50 a gallon [actually shud be sold in metric measures], we can give the station ten cents [five if a non-profit co-op] and close down any unnecessary stations [like limiting the number of liquor stores and bars] as too many just waste our money and waste electric power [lookit all the lights blazing 24 hrs a day!]...In a few years, oil will become mostly a feedstock of some plastics and chemicals--and a lubricant!.. By then we shud be whirring around electrically or driving stingy algae-oil or cellulosic- ethanol [both, plus HHO!] chuggers...'Peak Oil' can join 'Clean Coal' and 'Fun-with-Fusion'!..Aaron Allen...

 


Posted by: Aaron Allen

13-Sep-2009
68001
  

 Economic growth in China & India will have a geometric impact on worldwide oil consumption; there is no turning back: we need more oil discoveries and significant economies in consumption.  Fuel prices are significantly higher in Europe than in the USA, a consequence of which is that most vehicles are small and fuel efficient.  Our 2007 Citroen C4 diesel (approximately the same size as a Toyota Prius) gets the equivalent of 48 miles per gallon (highway); it has a very efficient automatic transmission (far different design than used in most US vehicles) and air conditioning.

One of the reasons politicians don't want to talk about peak oil is that it is not a new topic: these concerns have existed for many many years; politicians just keep hoping that new discoveries will be made (as has happened before) to assure supplies and avoid catastrophe.  There have been recent new discoveries - e.g., the giant offshore discovery in Brazil.  But all the "easy discoveries" have been made.  Future supplies will be very expensive to develop because of enormous depths.  Attempts to control oil prices will completely stop new exploration.  Bottom line:  USA can expect to pay more for gasoline in the future - maybe $4 or $5 per gallon (as we do in Europe).  There is simply no way to avoid it. 


Posted by: Aaron Ashcraft

11-Sep-2009
67991
  

Hirsch is simply telling the truth:  "I wish I could be optimistic and say that there is a magic wand of some sort, but if there is I don't know what it is."  He repeatedly says that he does not want to preach Armageddon but to find some middle road between that and fantasy optimism.

The fact is, there is no “middle road.”  ALL of the "solutions" one reads are little more than proposals which assume that all human beings act and react like middle-class, college-educated, mentally stable White Americans with a post-Christian, nicey-nice, liberal value system.  And these same solutions also invariably fail to take into consideration either the stupefying magnitude of the problem or its diabolical complexity.  Likewise, the proposers never take into consideration the evolution and history of the chief primate on this planet -- never mind the insidious deception invariably practiced by the political leadership of America throughout its history, especially its entry into wars.

The current economic recession is merely the first of the foothills to be encountered by a grossly overpopulating human species before it hits the mountain range of Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal and Peak Rare Earths (to mention just a few).  The "solution" to these limiting factors will not be ours to make.  It will be that of Nature.

Mr. Hirsch is to be warmly commended not only for his intelligence, his dedication and hard work of many years, but above all for his steadfast, level-headed courage in trying to present reality to people who prefer fairy tales.

Theedrich Yeat


Posted by: Theedrich Yeat

14-Nov-2009
107582
   im sure everyone out in america wants to get rid of oil - heres what all of you out here are missing. when the first gas powered vehicle showed up in america how long did the transistion from horses to gas vehicles take , i mean completely. how about over 30 years - 30 years before the majority of americans where driving a gas driven unit. so now we wish everyone to drive an EV. well dont panic,it will happen and i believe it will happen alot faster than 30 years as horses were not disappearing like the effect oil is going to have very soon. i do believe china is taking the high road by building the Model "t" of EV vehicles. vehicles that are not fancy but cheap and can commute people for up to 40 miles. we need to have a Model "t" version of an EV vehicle an build it here for the masses. you want people to go green then make it easier for them to buy a EV thats reasonable in price. who needs A/C if youre going just 3 miles to a park,so please comment and hey im going to miss oil the most , but im tired if the USA being in wars for this stuff. Peace
Posted by: j mclure

22-Oct-2009
87784
   Wow, I'm as impressed by the well thought out comments as I am by the article itself.

The way to creep towards a change in oil consumption is to first make the change yourself. Each of us must find ways to consume less oil. Being afraid of the consequences of that kind of choice is what stops most people in their tracks. We have to have courage and take the first step. If we don't want anarchy down the road we better start making the steps to change now. Ride your bike or walk to the grocery store. People who go grocery shopping in France don't buy food for two weeks supply at a time, they buy fresh and shop every other day. That means a small back pack, not a huge grocery cart full of food. Much easier to transport and you may be motivated to eat less junk and more fresh produce. You say you don't have time in your day to do that? Check to see how much time you spend doing things that aren't healthy, like watching TV, playing video games, or shopping for stuff you don't need.

I think people would become much more concientious about how much oil they consume if it cost alot more, and if that's true then people have choices about how they use oil in the first place.
Posted by: Jeff Bosma



TOOLS

printer email RSS

Miles Kilometers  
MPG L/100km  
 

[More Metric Converters]






Sign Up for FREE Weekly Email

Join the Dialogue

Here are the latest discussion threads on EV World's [Legacy] Forum

A Tale of Two Trabants
Posted: 15 Nov 2009
Electric Cars and Extended-Range EVs Made Simple... Really Simple
Posted: 14 Nov 2009
Two-thirds of 500 Petroleum Geologists Support "Peak Oil Is a Concern" Proposition
Posted: 10 Nov 2009
Australian Environment Minister Meets evMe Electric Car
Posted: 09 Nov 2009
What's a Smart Grid, Anyway?
Posted: 06 Nov 2009