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Global Warming: What's the Price?By Gary Gallon Open Access Article Originally Published: November 02, 2002
Gary Gallon is the publisher of the Gallon Environment Newsletter, published weekly from Montreal, Canada. He helped found the Canadian environmental movement and continues to be one of its leading lights. To receive his free weekly email newsletter send an email to: cibe@web.net What's the economic impact of global warming? Can it even be measured? Back in 1996 Dr. Paul Ekins wrote a paper entitled, "Economic Implications and Decision-Making in the Face of Global Warming." 1 Dr. Paul Ekins isn't a lightweight when it comes to economic analysis. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of London and is Head of the Environment Group at the Policy Studies Institute. He is also Professor of Sustainable Development in the School of Politics, International Relations and the Environment at Keele University; a Founder and Associate Director of the sustainable development charity Forum for the Future; Senior Consultant to Cambridge Econometrics; and a specialist adviser to the Environmental Audit Committee of the House of Commons. For more on Dr. Paul Ekins go to the website In this economic study, Akins analyzed the detailed research work of two distinguished economists, Dr. Samuel Frankhauser and Dr. William R. Cline. Samuel Frankhauser wrote, "Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," published by Earthscan Ltd., London, U.K., 1995. Cline wrote, "The Economics of Global Warming," published by the Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 1992. These two studies provide the raw numbers in Dr. Ekins report. Their numbers are based on the effects of doubling the level of GHG's in the atmosphere. Bluntly, here they are. Frankhauser predicted it will cost the U.S. about $69.3 billion a year in 1990 dollars. Cline had two estimates, one at $61.6 billion per year for conservative measurable costs, and another for a whopping $335.7 billion a year for a number of additional real, but hard-to-measure cost factors. Generally, all are the costs of inaction and the cost of mitigation related to unabated growth in greenhouse gas emissions. For more economic factors see the website. The total cost to the U.S. in 1990 dollars over a ten year period could range from a total of $616 billion to $3.357 trillion. Both Frankhauser and Cline use varying estimates to calculate costs. For example, Cline estimates a 60% forest loss in the U.S., and Frankhauser estimates a 16% loss. Cline estimates 9,800 heat-related increased deaths. Frankhauser estimates 6,642 additional deaths per year resulting from global warming. Cline values a lost life to the community at $600,000 per person. Frankhauser estimated twice that amount at $1.5 million. The economists take these numbers from other economists who've tried to estimate the value to the economy of a death. Here are the estimates of annual damage and adaptation costs to the United States from global warming incurred by the U.S. economy in 1990 dollars:
(Annual Costs In billions of 1990 dollars)
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