EV Market Forecast
A new report from IDTechEx "Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Players, Opportunities 2005-2015" is full of surprises about the evolving EV landscape. For example, marine and military applications both merit whole chapters because so much is now going on in these sectors. Vehicle manufacturers and those supplying components, subsystems and services certainly need to look at the big picture, uniquely analysed in this report. Their skills are now more widely applicable and making money in some sectors is far easier than in others.
Of course, the big story of hybrids is already well rehearsed. Here it is analysed by numbers and value for each applicational sector. The brighter manufacturers now leverage hybrid technology and much more besides into many sectors. For instance, Toyota makes electric cars, buses, fork lifts, vehicles for the disabled and more.
The EV industry is large and prosperous with $31.1 billion sales globally in 2005 at ex factory prices excluding toys. IDTechEx splits this into manufacturing and other, and by technology, territory etc. In 2015 the EV market will have grown 7.3 times to reach $227 billion. Much of the growth will not be organic growth in sales of existing types and markets. Much will involve replacement of pure internal combustion engine ICE vehicles by hybrid electric ones, whether they are diggers creating roads or trucks driving on them. In other words, much of the growth of sales of electric vehicles in the next ten years will be caused by reducing the sales of pure ICE vehicles to a figure below what they would otherwise been and not by impacting existing EV markets. However, only a few percent of the volume or value of road vehicles produced in 2015 will be electric (including hybrid).
IDTechEx believes that Toyota sits astride the EV business. In 2005, Toyota will have $3.7 billion in sales of EVs and associated services. That is over three times that of its nearest competitor and IDTechEx do not see Toyota challenged for at least five years. With a commanding lead in EV cars – a small business as yet – and in heavy industrial EVs, Toyota is the only company to plan hybrid versions of virtually all its on road vehicles. It is also one of the leaders in developing fuel cell powered EVs – not a business as yet - though not necessarily the leader.
Although Toyota has little or no presence in Two Wheel and Military EVs - two of what will be the four largest EV sectors by value of global sales in 2015 - its performance and investment is so impressive in the two others – cars and heavy industrial – that the Toyota market share of the global EV market may rise to 15% by value in 2015 and to 20% of the manufacturing part of that. As today, over 1000 companies will share the rest.
However, the largest number of EVs being produced today is in China and, in 2015, the largest gross sales value of EVs will be in China as well. Yet there will be much going on elsewhere.
The transition from mild hybrids to strong hybrids and where fuel cells fit in is a complex matter, dealt with in the report. Another aspect of the subject is how the applicational categories have a very different fit to EV capability. One aspect of this is shown in the table below.
|Type||Overall market demand (including non EV) is not saturating||EV penetration of sector is not saturating||EV technology usually meets market demand||New sectors being created by EVs|
|Heavy industrial, golf car and caddy|
|Cars and commercial, two wheel, marine|
|Disabled, toys, mobile robots|
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