Over the last two years or so, Toyota and Honda have been following a similar approach to a lithium-based transition to electric propulsion in the car industry. Indeed they have been rather conservative and cautious. In January 2009 Toyota announced, for example, that its new Prius will still use nickel-metal hydride batteries while not descarding the possibilitity to do some testing with lithium-ion batteries for small fleets. Honda has been even tougher. In its recently launched Insight model, it has simply ignored the latest breakthroughs in lithium-ion battery technology essentially sticking to the same chemistry used by Toyota. As of today, the two Japanese car companies are engaged in a price war which has prompted Toyota to announce the launching of a hybrid version of its small car Yaris to counterstrike the apparently recent market success of Honda's Insight. But why are they both staying in the lower-end of technology evolution regarding electric propulsion? In other words, why are they still betting on conventional hybrid technology while the rest of carmakers all over the world are aiming at Range Extended Electric Vehicles (REEVs) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)?
Often times during 2007 and 2008 Toyota's CEOs have argued that lithium-ion is not yet a proven technology for electric cars and that there are problems with lithium availability on earth to ensure an actual replacement of petroleum based vehicles. These arguments have been seriously weakened by both recent breakthroughs particularly in lithium ferrum phosphate battery technology that is already powering two mass-produced REEVs in China and announcements by the world's major lithium suppliers in Chile during the January 2009 Lithium Supply & Markets Conference that there is indeed sufficient lithium on earth to warrant the electric car revolution. Surprisingly, as a recent news article from the United Kingdom indicates, in 2009, Toyota appears to start moving ahead with lithium technology, but again one needs to wonder whether this is a real change in its business strategy.
At first sight, Honda's approach has been more consistent than Toyota's in terms of what comes first and what comes thereafter. To Honda, electric cars only make sense if they are powered by hydrogen. That is why it has ruled out any possibility whatsoever to launch lithium powered plug-in hybrid or pure electric cars in the near future. Nevertheless, earlier this year it has announced a joint venture with Yuasa to produce lithium-ion batteries. One simply wonders why Honda is investing heavily in lithium while at the same time is questioning this type of technology. Are there any specific reasons for such a behavior?
In this context, I can only conjecture that both Toyota and Honda may be playing the same game, one aimed at precluding General Motors from succeding in its attempt to lead the electric car revolution. I am convinced that the launch of the “Volt” car by GM is one (if not the most) important condition for the inauguration of electric propulsion in the world. If this does not occur or it is somewhat delayed, then Toyota and Honda have much to gain because that will necessarily postpone the arrival of the sixth techno-economic paradigm with lithium as its main factor and will help them make more profits out of a rather obsolete but still commercially viable battery technology until the new emerging battery technology is finally introduced into the market. This is most relevant now following today's New York Times news that the chairman and executive chief of General Motors, Rick Wagoner, is resigning, right in the middle of a serious turmoil at this firm. So when it comes to lithium ion battery technology, Toyota and Honda may in fact need to be conservative and cautious at least for the time being; it may be in their own interest to behave this way.
