 |
EDITION: 9.43 | 19 Oct 2009 |
In This Edition:
Week One with LIVN GRN
I don't know whether or not you're dying to find out how our Plug-In Conversions Corporation-converted Prius did its first week, but I am dying to tell you, so here goes.
Judy and I just returned from a 15 mile junket down to Nebraska Furniture Mart (NFM) to look for bookshelves, the typical type of weekend trip many people will make, except that in our case, virtually all of it was in blended hybrid mode with the IC engine only turning on to assist us up a few hills, then quickly turning back off. By the time we'd logged 15 miles, including a stop at Home Depot to look at unpainted cabinets, the car's mileage display still showed 99.9 mpg, the maximum the Prius records. Helping us achieve this was the fact that the sun finally came out today after more than a week of cloud and below normal temperatures. We didn't have to run the climate system, meaning that apart from the engine coming on initially to warm up the catalytic converter, we didn't have to run it to heat the cabin or defrost the windows, something Judy did have to do a few times during her commute last week.
But even then, the lowest fuel economy rating she turned in was nearly 68 mpg and her best was 93.6, which she achieved on Friday. She admitted, with no small amount of satisfaction, that she's starting to figure out how to drive the car to get its best fuel economy. Of course, she did have one brief moment of concern when she got a "check engine" alert on starting the car to drive home from work Wednesday evening.
"I want my old car back," she chastised me.
I called Steve Woodruff at AutoBeYours.com for advice and he counseled, "if the light is red, don't move. It it's yellow, you can drive home." It was yellow and as soon as Judy pulled into the garage, I put the computer on it and checked for error codes. Nada. Apparently it was just a hiccup in the software, but we'll keep an eye on it.
So apart from that moment of "Honey-come-get-me" melodrama, the car has performed flawlessly. This week I'll be in Detroit three days, so it'll be up to Judy to be sure to plug the car in every night before she goes to bed. We'll probably video Skype each other in the evening, so I'll see how she's doing, but so far this has been an exciting experience; and next weekend we drive 60 miles south for my aunt's 90th birthday. We'll see how the car does then and report it here and on the new Twitter account I established at http://twitter.com/LIVNGRN.
Business of Plugging In
This week, Detroit officially recognizes the reality of plug-in vehicles. Until the "Business of Plugging In" conference this week -- Oct 19-21 -- technical events of this nature were the purview of places like California. Yes, plug-ins and battery electric cars have been featured at venues like the annual Detroit Auto Show for a decade, at least. Back in '98, I attended a conference just outside Detroit hosted by SAE that focused on electric cars. Then they began to trail off as the focus shifted to fuel cells. Now plug-ins are back, but this time we're no longer talking theory or demonstration fleets to appease California regulators; now we're talking production vehicles from OEMs large and small.
This time tomorrow night (Monday), I'll be in Detroit as a guest of General Motors, who offered to cover my expenses to attend the conference. With our budget severely constrained due to the precipitous drop in our adverting revenue since last fall, I've had to reduce travel and rely on local contributors like Sam Smith in California and Martin Schwoerer in Germany. Of course, this isn't all bad since it reduces my carbon footprint, but still, I need to attend events like this to keep my finger on the pulse of the industry. So when company's like Nissan and GM offer to help me get to them, I accept. Of course, the companies hope that this helps build rapport, and it does, but they also understand that I still have to call them as I see them.
3-Wheelers Need Apply
Last year the Bush Administration's Department of Energy ruled that 3-wheeled vehicles like the Aptera and Zap Alias weren't automobiles because they didn't have four wheels, reported the Wall Street Journal just a few weeks ago. The Journal noted at the time that intense lobbying efforts were underway to include such vehicles in the definition of what is an automobile.
Those efforts appear now to have paid off. In an 80-17 vote last week, the U.S. Senate agreed to amend the law to include "ultra-efficient vehicles" that can achieve at least 75 mpg in fuel efficiency and have an enclosed cabin capable of seating two adults. While this doesn't specifically reference three-wheelers, it no longer specifically excludes them from applying for federal loans under the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program.
You can see the amendment that is part of HR 3183 here on the GovTrack web site. Scroll down to Sec 312.
X-Country Volts
The letter "X" has a number of different meanings, one of them "cross" as in cross country. That's what eight Chevy pre-production Volts did last week. Led by chief program engineer Andrew Farah, the cars convoyed out of Detroit at 8:30 Tuesday morning headed towards Pittsburgh. There they spent the night, half of them plugged in, the other half not. Next morning, they swung south into the Appalachian Mountains for a run down to Morgantown, West Virginia.
It was as this point that GM arranged for a small number of journalists to telephone conference with Farah while he was on the road. We didn't necessarily learn a lot more about the cars other than they seemed to be performing as expected in charge sustaining mode, though Farah did note that the cars still need further refining, which is to be expected. The bottom line is that the cars are capable of extended runs through mountainous terrain. What kind of fuel economy they got would be very interesting to know.
X-ing Electric Cars
Two other possible meanings for X are experimental and cancelled. In the case of one Mischa Popoff, a contributor to the Family Security Matter's web site, it's the latter. In an error-filled screed, he contends that hybrids and electric cars are expensive, impractical and ultimately a burden on less well-to-do citizenry. Here are some of Mr. Popoff's more egregious errors:
- A run-of-the-mill hybrid battery is currently triple the cost of a gasoline engine, about $8,000. Raw materials comprise 70 percent of this cost.
- There are a lot of reasons to NOT buy an electric or hybrid car: lack of performance, lack of range, lack of towing and carrying capacity; basically lack of everything for which you buy a car.
- Take for example the high-performance 2010 GM Volt hybrid. Its lithium battery costs a whopping $21,000.
The author of this article is either sloppy, dishonest or a little of both. If she had done a little research she would have found that the facts do not support her basic argument that the cost of lithium threatens to make hybrids unaffordable.On seeing the link to his article on EV World, Mr. Popoff contacted me and asked if I'd be interested in running more of his postings, commending me for my open-mindedness. I replied that I'd keep his offer in mind, but that he first needed to do a better job researching his facts.
Using the Chevy Volt as an example, the first thing you need to know is how much lithium will be needed to build each Volt. Doing a little research and using the periodic table, I've concluded that about 2% of each Volt battery will be elemental lithium. If a Volt battery weighs 400 lbs., that means there is only 8 lbs. of elemental lithium in each car. Secondly, what is the price of lithium? Lithium carbonate currently sells for $3/lb. and it takes about 6 lbs. of lithium carbonate to yield a lb. of elemental lithium. So, each car will require 6 x 8 = 48 lbs. of lithium carbonate at $3/lb. = $144 per car.
Even a tenfold increase in the price of lithium (and the author offers no facts to support this assumption) would mean that less than $1,500 per car is lithium.
X-ing Oil Imports
The last X in this exercise is crossing-out as in reducing oil consumption. Okay, I know it's a bit of stretch, but allow me a little literary license.
Recently, the folks at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, or CERA, reported that oil demand in the OECD nations peaked in 2005 and has been gradually declining since. Quoting Daniel Yergin, the New York Times reported...
"The economic downturn has been masking a larger trend in the oil demand of developed countries. The fact is that OECD oil demand has been falling since late 2005, well before the Great Recession began."Of course, just because OECD demand is down that doesn't mean we can breathe a sigh of relief. China and India have now entered the global oil consumption queue. Concludes the Times, "Global demand will nonetheless grow, fueled mostly by developing nations, CERA finds. The company forecasts world demand to increase from 83.8 million barrels per day this year to 89.1 mbd in 2014."
The biggest reason, the group says, is that oil demand in the transportation sector -- which is the United States' dominant use of oil and accounts for 60 percent of OECD petroleum demand -- is flattening.
The trend has been noticed elsewhere, as well. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson said this month that U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007.
The Cambridge Energy Research Associates, or CERA, analysis cites several reasons why demand in developed nations -- which accounts for slightly more than half the world's total -- won't recover. Among them: Car ownership rates have reached "saturation," while populations are aging and population growth ranges from low to negative.
Also, OECD governments, driven by global warming and energy security worries, have tightened fuel efficiency standards, while high prices in recent years have also pushed consumers away from gas guzzlers.
In the United States, the Obama administration plans to implement rules that push corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE, standards to a fleet-wide average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016, four years ahead of the schedule Congress laid out in a 2007 energy law.
Use of alternative fuels like ethanol has also grown.
"New technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and next-generation bio fuels could also have a greater impact in the future," the report states.
Falling demand in the developed world has led to speculation that OPEC might drop the dollar as the medium of exchange for oil on the global market, in part -- so the speculation goes -- in retaliation for the West's drive to deploy vehicles that use little or no petroleum. Considering the global automotive fleet is nearing a billion oil burners, I find such speculation, frankly, baseless. OPEC will have lots of markets in which to sell its reserves for many, many years to come, though interestingly, forecasts see the price of oil eventually dropping in the 2030 and later time frame as petroleum-fueled IC engine technology becomes obsolete, replaced by non-fossil fuel-driven vehicles.
96.81 mpg MPG Vs. 99.9 MPG
If everyone drove a smartfortwo as efficiently as Mick Linford did in the recent MPG Marathon in the UK, OPEC would have something to worry about. Over the 360 mile UK course, he averaged PHEV-comparable 96.81 mpg. The previous record for the cdi version of the smart was 85.6 mpg. You can view the road course on Google Maps. This was no nice, flat oval track, but a twisting, winding, route northeast and southwest of Coventry.
Mick and smart are due every bit of credit they've earned, and I hope he puts out a YouTube video that explains exactly how he did it, and better yet, how other smart drivers can do the same. That being said, he still burned petroleum -- not very much mind you, something like 4.45 US gallons (3.71 Imperial gal.) -- whereas the electric cars we'll be starting to see over the next several years could drive the same course over its two days and not burn a drop, which really would give OPEC heartburn.
Of course, the electric power has to come from somewhere, and in the UK that's coal, nuclear and increasingly wind power, both onshore and offshore, so CO2 emissions aren't zero, but they are moving in the right direction. Mercedes justly noted that Mick's smart cdi produced just 88g/km of carbon dioxide, that's even better than the Prius, with the possible exception of our plug-in.
Paice Vs. Toyota
Speaking of which (like that segue?), if Paice has its way in federal court and/or the International Trade Commission, Toyota will be forced to stop importing any of its newest Hybrid Synergy Drive-powered vehicles into the United States.
Having successful exacted a court-ordered settlement out of Toyota several years ago that included a $4-4.3 million settlement and subsequent royalties on each and every Prius, Highlander and Lexus 400h imported into the USA, the Silver Springs, MD company -- which claims it invented features that later appeared in Toyota hybrid drives -- is now seeking an injunction in federal court in Texas, as well as asking the ITC to intervene in its behalf, charging that Toyota continues to use essentially the same technology found in the Prius in its newest round of hybrids, including the Camry and various Lexus hybrids, and for which it isn't paying royalties.
As you might expect, Toyota officially considers Paice's claims as merit less and points out that it won 4 of the 5 claims in the original lawsuit, and was found essentially guiltless on the fifth. Clearly, what Paice wants is to negotiate directly with Toyota to win higher royalties than that ordered by the federal court in Marshall, Texas in the original finding.
If you're interested in learning more about this case, you can -- as a premium subscriber -- listen to my 30+ minute interview with Michael Murphy, a partner with the law firm of Coats and Bennett, that has been carefully tracking this case over the last few years.
E-Commerce on EV World
I want to bring to your attention two electronic commerce initiatives we've begun on the web site in order supplement the drop in third-party advertising revenue from partners like Google, BurstMedia and VibrantMedia. Together, they provided a significant share of our very modest operating budget. The fall of advertising revenues across all media has hit us just as hard, so until better times return, we're looking for other ways to keep the ship afloat.
Two of those ways are partnerships with Steve Woodruff at Autobeyours, the Prius restoration shop from which we bought our Prius, and the formation of Restoration Investment Group, in partnership with Luis & Associates of Denver, Colorado. In Steve's case, we are now displaying the real-time inventory of vehicles he has restored, is restoring now, or has acquired to restore. We are very happy with our Prius and can recommend his services. Any potential buyers we refer to Autobeyours that buy a car, we will receive a modest commission.
The second partnership is with Luis Gonzalez who has a successful real estate business in Denver, Colorado. We have partnered to raise hard money loans to acquire foreclosed and abandoned homes in gentrifying neighborhoods in the greater Denver area. We restore these homes and sell them, often to first time home buyers. The average price of a restored home is $157,000 and by focusing on these neighborhoods, we believe we are helping breathe new life into them. The story is a compelling one that I tell on our new Ri Group LLC web site (http://rigroupllc.com).
Having just finished "The Snowball," the biography of Warren Buffett, Judy and I are following his personal creed in life to only invest other people's money after he'd first invested his own. We are going to be the first investors in the Restoration Investment Group. We believe this is not only a worthwhile effort but also one that is a winner for the home buyer, Ri Group, and the investor.
I'll understand if you aren't interested in either of these enterprises, I thought you'd want to know why they are now on the web site. And if you're looking for a good deal on the used Prius or wanting to find a better way to put your savings to work than moldering in a 1% CD, then I hope you'll follow the links on the web site.
Until next time, stay plugged into EVWorld...
Current Views: 870
Reader Comments |
|
|
0 comments so far... |
Report Abuses to EV World's Editor
