EDITION: 12.18 | 06 May 2012

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SOLAR TIPPING POINT

Solyndra maybe a dirty word in some circles these days, but it is also an important signpost that shows we’re at a tipping point in the economics of solar power. The reason the company went under is because others were offering products at lower per watt costs. Chinese manufacturers have driven down solar panel production costs from $4 per Watt peak in 2008 to around $1 today. Balance of system costs for wiring, racks, inverters similarly fell to around $2 per Wp in 2012.

Writes McKinsey & Company in “Solar power: Darkest before the Dawn,” growth in the solar PV industry after 2012 has the potential of “reaching a tipping point in 2014 or 2016 that could enable unsubsidized demand for solar PV to grow between 200 and 700 GW by 2020.”

They see most of the growth in the USA being in residential and commercial installation in distribution generation arrangements, reaching an installed capacity of between 80-130GW, much of it in 10 Sunbelt states (see map on page 3).

Globally, they see the potential of solar power investment totaling between $800 million to $1.2 trillion over the next decade.

The report, which is available for free, focuses largely on how downstream enterprises can capitalize on this important tipping point, which they forecast “could bring dramatic changes across the globe. Rapid growth of distributed generation could disrupt the regulated utility industry in countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).” They add...

“Our analysis suggests annual installations of solar PV could increase 50-fold by 2020 compared with 2005, achieving installation rates that could rival those of gas, wind, and hydro and that might outpace nuclear.

Just to underscore this. A politically active electrician of my acquaintance approached me this week offering to install a complete 5kW PV system for $3 per Watt, including all the BOS. That, my friends is very, very tempting. And it’s only going to get more so as we near that 2014-2016 tipping point.

SPARK…ING A DOWNSIZING REVOLUTION

Once upon a time when gasoline was under a dollar a gallon in the USA and filling stations were full-service, big cars ruled. There are still large vehicles out there, but increasingly companies like GM, Ford, Chrysler and their foreign competitors are putting their engineering skills into smaller, more efficient vehicles. The perception is because they are small, a lot smaller, they aren’t as roomy as their Jurassic-era predecessors.

Cannily, General Motors put together the infograph on page 7 that highlights “what’s changed -- and what hasn’t” between then and now, using the Chevy Spark as its measuring stick compared to what appears to be a Ford Galaxy 500, considered here the typical family sedan circa 1973, before the first oil shock.

Exterior-wise, the Spark is about half the size of the Galaxy: 219.5 inches for the latter compared to 143.3 inches for the former. Weight is correspondingly less: the Spark at 2,300 lbs, the Galaxy at 4,110 lbs. The Ford was powered by a 351 cubic inch, V-8; the Spark, by a 67 hp, four-cylinder. Estimated fuel economy of the 500 was a dismal 10.7 mpg compared to the Spark’s 46 mpg. Of course, the Ford product probably sat six, the Spark five; which is reflected in their respective widths: 75.5 inches versus the Spark’s narrower 62.9. Interestingly, drivers in the GM mini-car actually sit six inches higher than the 500. Maybe the most obvious difference not highlighted is the trunk/boot space difference between the two. You could get a family of six’s luggage for a vacation in that Titantic-sized space. Of course, you’d have to also stop more frequently: the Galaxy had to refuel about every 230 miles. With a 9.25 gallon tank, the US model of the Spark can go better than 400 miles between fill-ups. The Spark will also be the basis of GM’s next all-electric car.

WEEKLY EV WORLD ROUND-UP

It’s official. GM has now set up a website devoted to the Cadillac ELR (www.cadillac.com/elr-electric-car.html), the uptown cousin of the Chevy Volt. The company has now slated it for sale as a 2014 model, likely in late 2013. Reports are that it will be built on the same assembly line in Hamtramck as the Volt, which makes sense. GM used the same line to build both Buicks and Cadillacs. It will be powered by the same Voltec electric hybrid system as the Volt, though it’ll probably offer a bit more performance. No pricing has yet been announced, but given its stunning good looks, it should be a hot seller.

The State of Massachusetts has designed a new license plate for EVs, as you can see from the photo. Purportedly, part of the reason is to alert emergency personnel responding to an accident that the car is electrified. Curiously, they are being treated like ‘vanity’ plates. Owners of hybrids, PHEVs, and BEVs don’t have to buy them -- at a one-time $20 fee -- when they register their cars. For some people, the inclusion of hybrids in the mix is confusing, because it suggests that all hybrids have to be plugged in. Toyota spent gobs of money advertising for years the Prius doesn’t have to be plugged in.

1,000. That’s the number of Nissan LEAFs now quietly cruising the streets of Oslo and elsewhere in Norway, which happens to be one of the more enlightened nations on the planet. It also happens to rank near the top as the happiest place to live, due in large part to how they have wisely invested the profits from their oil operations in the North Sea. Maybe that’s why the car is the second most popular Nissan vehicle sold there after its introduction just 6 months ago. Incidentally, one dealer alone has sold 550 of the 1,000, making him one of the largest volume LEAF dealers worldwide.

The world’s largest solar-powered airplane, the Solar Impulse, is going to attempt its longest flight over water to date, flying from its home in Switzerland, across the Pyrenees and Spain to Morocco to commemorate the construction of the largest solar thermal power plant ever built, in the Ouarzazate region. The flight will take an estimated 48 hours, with a stop-over in Madrid; the distance being some 1,550 miles (2,500 km). The flight will take place this month or in June.

If you live near Penrose, North Carolina, home of the new Dark Green Motorsports Motocross track, you can rest easy that your peace won’t be shattered by the grating screams of two-stroke engine motorbikes. The 1,400 meter track is the first to feature Zero MX all-electric rental dirt bikes. You can rent them for $35 a hour. Helmets and other gear are $5. Bring your own bike (preferably electric) and you can use the track for $10/hr. A full charge on the Zero MX is good for 45-90 minutes of racing. Top speed is 54 mph.

Add another electric airplane to the growing list of aircraft headed towards production. This one is the Volta Volare, a single-engine, four-place, delta-wing-canard in the spirit of Burt Rutan. Like the Fisker Karma and Chevrolet Volt, it uses a small 1.4L gasoline generator to charge its 900 lb (408 kg) battery pack, which consists of 236 lithium-polymer cells. Dubbed the GT4, it has a cruise speed of 160 kt (184 mph), 10 kts higher than the Cessna 184. The Portland, Oregon design-team’s electric flight range goal is 300 miles, at which point it switches to series hybrid, pulling fuel from its 23 gallon tank. Pricing will be around $500,000.

AUDI EXPANDS E-TRON LINE-UP

The Audi A6 L e-tron electric hybrid would, if it were ever produced, extend the German carmaker’s line of e-drive vehicles to at least four models: the sporty R8, the A3, the Q7 and the L model, which is an extended-wheelbase version of the A6 currently being built by the company’s joint-venture with China’s FAW at their plant in Changchun.

Audi rolled out the A6 L e-tron concept at the Beijing Auto Show, demonstrating the increasing importance of the Chinese market to automakers worldwide.

The L e-tron is powered by a 211 hp 2.0 liter TFSI gasoline engine, mated to a 70kW (95 hp) electric motor in what the company says is a parallel hybrid architecture. From what little additional information has been released, it appears to use what might be called a blended mode system, where the car’s computer system selects when and at what level of electrification to utilize. EV-mode driving range is up to 80 km at a steady 60 km/h speed. This arrangement would be something akin to that used in the Prius PHV, though the Toyota vehicle has a higher top speed in EV mode; range in that mode, however is also less, about 12-15 miles. The type and capacity of the liquid-cooled lithium battery is not known at this time.

We are told that the first production e-tron vehicle will be the A3 e-tron around 2014.

CHRYSLER EDGES BACK INTO THE EV GAME

I recently chatted with Jim Suttle, the Mayor of Omaha at a May Day event. I asked him if he was still driving his Dodge Durango Hybrid, one of the few that got produced before the financially beleaguered carmaker cancelled the program, followed not long thereafter by bankruptcy and bailout. He informed me that with 80,000 miles on the odometer, it was still going strong. He’d replace it, he said, only after he’d won re-election; he came within a whisker of being recalled in his first term by political opponents, some of whom criticized his leasing the hybrid, which he’d initiated, in part, as a way to underscore his commitment to ‘greening’ the city.

When he gets ready to replace, he won’t find a similar hybrid SUV from the Auburn Hills manufacturer. The company isn’t that comfortable financially, yet. But that doesn’t mean they’ve given up the pursuit of e-drive technology. There is a Fiat 500 EV coming at some point in the near future, though details remain sketchy.

What is less sketchy is its electric hybrid (plug-in) program, which includes the Dodge Ram pickup and Chrysler Town&Country Minivan. The company is building small, limited production runs that are being fielded for fleet-trials in places like California, Arizona, Michigan, and Massachusetts. The Minivan is powered by an E-85 compatible IC engine driving the front transaxle and an electric motor propelling the rear axle. EV range is about 22 miles. The Ram pickup will use the same Dual-Mode hybrid found in the original Durango Hybrid. Electrovaya batteries give it 20 miles EV range.

APRIL E-DRIVE SALES ARE MIXED BAG

After a very bullish March for sales of Chevrolet Volts, the numbers for April are now in and they aren’t as exuberant this time around. Still, GM sold nearly four times as many Volts (1,462) as Nissan sold LEAFs (370 units). Since its record sales in June 2011, when Nissan delivered 1,702 units, volumes have slowly eroded -- which has to be disappointing for Nissan.

In contrast, Volt sales, with the exception of this past April, have steadily climbed, suggesting that earlier negative publicity may be starting to fade as the utility of an extended- range electric vehicle starts to be better appreciated.

Both companies are not offering their e-drive vehicles in all of the lower 48 states. The slump in E-vehicle sales probably has several sources; one being a gradual retreat in the price of a gallon of gasoline away from the $4 mark. Another contributing factor is April was a slow month for both GM and Ford, off 8.2% and 5% respectively. Of the ‘Big Three,’ Chrysler recorded an amazing 20.4% increase over the previous year, surging past Honda in year-to-year sales.

European carmakers also had a good month. Daimler was up 28%, Volkswagen up 27%, while BMW registered a more modest 6%.

But maybe the most amazing of all were sales of Toyota and Lexus hybrids. In April, Lexus sold 2,467 hybrids, a 17.6% increase year-over-year. Toyota hybrid sales (Prius, Camry, Highlander) soared an astounding 124.6% over sales in April 2011, but that was also the month after the disastrous earthquake and tsunami that devastated the country.

BLINK CHARGERS AND BIB LETTUCE

I know what you’re thinking: vegetables in EV World? What’s up with that? What do ECOtality Blink chargers and bib lettuce have to do with one another?

Not much, not directly, that is. Indirectly, more than you might imagine. Electric chargers help power cars, kale and Swiss chard and bib lettuce, people.

The real reason we included this feature this week is because our publisher, Bill Moore, attended a 3-day seminar near Knoxville, Tennessee on commercial aquaponics, which through a combination of science and art raise both fish and produce in a symbiotic relationship. The fish produce ‘fertilizer’ for the plants. The plants, in their turn, clean up the water for the fish. In the end, you get healthy fish and plants without the need for artificial fertilizers, insecticides, and pesticides. In a remarkably small physical footprint, using a fraction of the water of conventional agriculture, you can grow huge quantities of protein and plant matter. We find the whole concept fascinating; enough to invest both time and money to learn more, as well as experiment a bit. Over the past winter, Bill grew chard, lettuce and even a few strawberries in his basement, nourished, in part, by seven rapidly maturing goldfish.

As the population of the planet races towards 10 billion souls, and more and more of them relocate to megalopolises, ‘urban agriculture’ is going to be increasingly necessary. Aquaponics will, we believe, play an important role in feeding, and employing people, in a post-petroleum world.

By Dr. Charles R. Shultz’s estimate, there are about 1,000 small scale aquaponics (AP) systems in North America, though many more hydroponic operations. Worldwide, he believes there’s about 5,000 AP systems, with most of them located in Australia. Dr. Shultz, considered a ‘superstar’ in the AP movement, spent 14 years at the University of the Virgin Islands perfecting the UVI system for commercial-scale operations like the state-of-the-art facility that Greater Growth’s Joel Townsend has built just outside Lenoir City, TN. It was the site of the seminar.

Inside the roughly 10,000 square foot greenhouse, are six 100 foot-long 14-inch deep raceways on which float rafts full of healthy, bright green produce. At the east end of the facility are six large fish tanks, plus smaller breeding tanks for tilapia, one of the more popular species used in AP systems. When his Lenoir City operation is completely up and running, Townsend expects to harvest produce every week, year-round, and fish roughly every six weeks. Because he is aiming for full USDA NOP certification, he expects to sell his organic produce at a premium to retail customers and fine restaurants.

EV World’s interest is tangential, to be sure, but just as electric vehicles will be increasingly important in the coming century, so will wholesome, healthy, energy and water-efficient food production. We’re betting a lot of those deliveries will be via electric trucks some day. Besides, the closer the food is produced to us, the fewer miles it has to travel, and that’s about as energy efficient as you get.

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