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EDITION: 9.10 | 02 Mar 2009 |
In This Edition:
Prius Preview
Last Thursday found me in Napa Valley where the mustard, fruit trees and jonquils are in bloom. Saturday I was shoveling four inches of snow off my driveway here in Nebraska. You can imagine where I'd prefer to be, can't you?
Toyota picked Napa as the location to provide a small troop of journalists with a preview of their third generation Prius. While I am embargoed from talking about my impressions of the car until March 25th, I can talk about the technology today, March 2nd.
The technology briefing led off with Akihiko Otsuka, the chief engineer on the project, which began four and half years ago and eventually involved 2,000 engineers. Otsuka, with whom I had the privilege of having dinner Thursday night, along with a couple Chicago-based reporters and a photojournalist from Miami, is in his forties, having started with Toyota 20 years ago. In 1998, he became an assistant chief engineer on the Estima and Alphard Hybrid vans. Being appointed chief engineer on the next generation Prius is a huge honor and involves a great deal of personal sacrifice. Sitting next to him, I realized that in our preoccupation with the hardware, we tend to forget the people behind it.
When he was appointed to lead the development of the new Prius, he found his family life had to take a back seat to the project, many nights working until midnight, immersed in endless meetings on myriad details. He remarked with a hint of humor that TMC stood for "Toyota Meeting Company" as he attended upwards of ten meetings a day.
He did allow himself the luxury of weekends off to spend time with his young children, walk his retriever and play drums in a band. A car enthusiast, he owns a couple Italian classic Alfa Romeos.
Over dinner I asked him about what was his mandate for the new car. He replied that his objective had been to improve the overall performance of the car by 75%, not just in terms of fuel efficiency, but in ride, comfort, and styling. Earlier that morning he had enumerated four key goals:
- World class fuel economy and environmental performance
- Cutting-edge styling
- Advanced equipment that sets trends for a new era
- And overall vehicle performance
While enjoying sherbet for dessert, I asked Otsukasan about the engineering challenges of developing a hybrid minivan. An EV World readers suggested I ask this question if I got the chance. Akihiko Otsuka thought for a moment and replied that the first and perhaps biggest is where to place the battery. He explained that most American minivans need to have the ability to add a third row of seats. This makes it very difficult to find a place for the hybrid battery pack.
I read into this that we American's shouldn't expect to see a Sienna Hybrid anytime soon, but company executives did confirm that Toyota still plans to offer hybrid options of all its vehicle models by 2020.
Solar Twist
The 2010 Prius will come with a solar electric panel option on the roof, which runs a ventilation fan to keep the interior cool, typically a couple degrees above ambient temperature. That reduces the need to run the car's electric-powered air conditioner, improving its energy efficiency.
The obvious question is, can the solar cells also be used to trickle charge the car's battery? Surprisingly, the answer -- for now -- is no. Otsukasan explained why. Toyota tried it and apparently discovered that for not-entirely-well-understood reasons, connecting the PV panels to the battery turns them into an 'antenna' of sorts, which at the very least seems to disrupt the car's radio. I asked if it also created an unlicensed radio frequency transmission, which would bring the FCC into the equation. Apparently Toyota engineers aren't interested in going down that thorny path. The solar powered fan is all they were interested in introducing at this point.
In Nickel Metal Hydride Do We Trust
Paul Scott -- who appears in "Who Killed the Electric Car?" -- asked me to find out when Toyota planned to offer their plug-in Prius for sale to consumers, so I asked.
Paul, as you might expect, the answer is basically, "When we're ready and when the car's fully developed with no excuses."
With more than a decade of real world experience with nickel metal hydride batteries in its Prius and other other hybrids, Toyota has come to appreciate just how reliable and durable it is. There are first generation Priuses with upwards of 300,000 miles on them, Toyota told me. NiMH just works.. and works... and works.
The company is somewhat less sanguine about lithium. Bill Reinert told me in Napa that his biggest fear is that someday a car company could find itself forced to recall lithium-powered cars if the packs prematurely fail. Is he just being overly cautious? Perhaps, but he warns that such an event could be disastrous to the electric-drive industry, explaining, "I was around to see that happen in the late '70s with solar and don't want to have a repeat."
Until it is confident that lithium will be as reliable as nickel, Toyota is going to proceed with justifiable caution. It is going to introduce 150 plug-in hybrids into selected North America fleets by this time next year with more elsewhere. It is going to meticulously collect data from those vehicles and then when its ready, it'll offer cars to consumers.
Smaller Is Better?
Toyota's Reinert -- among others -- has long argued that a "blended" mode, parallel plug-in hybrid with a smaller battery makes more sense economically than a battery-dominate serial hybrid like the Chevy Volt. Now a new study from Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh would lend credence to that position.
Reports Bloomberg news service...
A rechargeable auto with the Volt’s target range of 40 miles on electricity is "not cost effective in any scenario" a study by Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh found. Plug- in cars with smaller batteries may be a better value, according to the study, which doesn’t cite the Volt by name.I would guess that Larry Burns and Tony Posawatz over at GM are sharpening their pencils right now.The study is an attempt to test how prices and driving habits may shape consumer choices among current hybrids and new models such as the Volt and a Prius able to be recharged at a household outlet.
With lighter, cheaper batteries, a plug-in with 7 to 10 miles (11 to 16 kilometers) of electric range or a conventional hybrid may provide the best mix of price, faster charge times and efficiency, Michalek said. His study was accepted this week for publication in a future issue of the journal Energy Policy.
Scooter Surprise
In order to attend the Prius press preview in Napa Valley, Toyota arranged for me to arrive in San Francisco in the morning. I didn't have to be in Yountville until 6:30 that evening, giving me time to make a few stops in between. So, I emailed Richard Hatfield to see how his electric motorcycle project was coming along.
Besides the air fare, Toyota also provided me with a Generation II Prius to drive, but I'd have to team with another journalist who was slated to land forty minutes after my arrival time. I hoped he didn't have an urgent need to drive straight up to Napa, a 90-minute trip. Fortunately, Russell Frost was game and with the aid of my Garmin, we headed down the 101 towards San Carlos. It turns out Russell not only used to live in San Francisco, but he's also a huge motorcycle fan. Boy, was he in for a treat!
Richard was waiting to not only show us his pride and joy -- an EV1-powered Ducati destined to race around the Isle of Man this June -- but also a really fun electric scooter. I write about in Lightning on Two Wheels. But to repeat what I said there, the scooter is simply amazing. I've ridden several early electric scooters from Oxygen and e-Max and Hatfield's would run rings around them. And since those companies and others are just as capable of adapting the technology found in Richard's machine, I am confident that we'll continue to see steady performance and price improvements across this class of EV.
Coming Carbon Caps
Previous American administrations wouldn't touch this one with a three-meter pole, but Barack Obama announced that he wants Congress to submit to him legislation that will authorize the creation of a carbon cap and trade system to begin reining in the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. While environmentalists and some businesses including FedEx endorse the idea -- Duke Energy did originally, but has pulled back a bit of late -- others are less enthusiastic, suggesting that carbon taxes would make more sense.
The Obama administration sees carbon credits selling for $13.70US per ton by 2012, earning the government an estimated $645US billion in revenues by 2019. It's estimated that the net effect on consumers would be a 6 % increase in the price of gasoline or about $0.12/gallon. Duke Energy's Thomas Williams warned that 25 states that rely heavily on coal for electric power production would see utility rates rise 40%.
To which I ask, isn't that the point, Mr. Thomas? Your utility uses our atmospheric commons as a dumping ground for your pollution and greenhouse gases. So do coal-fired utilities around the planet, including the public utilities here in my state. Raising the price of coal-fired electric power would stimulate conservation and innovation, by both the Dukes of the world and those of us at this end of the power line.
So, I say, let's get with it... whether its cap and trade or carbon taxes, I want America to get off its duff and do something for the planet.
Creating a World Without Poverty
Someone who is doing precisely that is Dr. Mohammad Yunus who won the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for founding Grameen Bank and the concept of micro-lending, lending small sums of money to the poor -- especially women -- in Bangladesh and elsewhere to help them lift themselves out of poverty. He authored Banker to the Poor, an account of the founding of this revolutionary concept and financial institution. It was because of that book that I made it a point to host -- at no expense -- Kiva,org's public service banners on EV World and regularly "invest" in private micro-ventures half a world away.
Now Dr Yunus has penned a new tome, "Creating a World Without Poverty" that outlines the concept of truly compassionate capitalism, which seeks to better the lives of all, not just a wealthy few. In writing a review of the book on Amazon.com, Professor Donald Mitchell outlines the key assumptions that underpin Yunus' revolutionary social business concept.
1. The poor are very capable of solving problems -- survival needs have honed their skills.As the car companies of the world look for new business models, especially GM and Chrysler, Rick Wagoner and Bob Nardelli might do well to give the ideas propounded in Creating a World Without Poverty some consideration, especially since Dr. Yunus takes them to task for building products that are not only harmful to the environment but also for engage in more than their share of fraudulent green washing.2. Poor people often need very few resources to pull themselves out of poverty. They are used to making do with little and will frugally expand a small farm or business.
3. Many poor people are poor because they are exploited by those who loan them money, provide supplies, and purchase their offerings. By providing inexpensive microcredit, poor people can escape from that exploitation.
4. By helping the whole family make progress, you can lift a family out of poverty permanently through more income, savings, capital, improved living conditions, and education.
5. By focusing on helping poor women, the resources are used most effectively.
6. Poor women are good credit risks.
7. Some needs cannot be met without adding expertise that the poor don't have (such as developing more nutritional, low-cost snacks for youngsters) but which those in profit-making companies often do have.
8. Some leaders of profit-making companies are moved to make a difference for the poor and can assist in establishing new enterprises to solve important problems that plague the poor (blindness, malnutrition, and lack of communications).
9. Creating social businesses uses a lot fewer resources than charity or government initiatives and leads to better results for the poor.
It is a harsh indictment, but one worth considering by us all. We tend of forget that we share this precious planet with billions of our fellow human beings, half of whom live on less than a $2.50 (€1.98) a day. I know carmakers see the developing world as a huge new market into which they hope to sell their products, but they limit themselves if they consider the small, affluent middle classes of India or China who might afford their current product mix, while they ignore the "Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid."
Until next time, stay plugged into EVWorld...
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