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EDITION: 10.3 | 11 Jan 2010 |
In This Edition:
New Delhi the New 'Detroit'?
Thirty-six months ago, I don't think I'd even heard of the Auto Expo held annually in New Delhi, India. This year you couldn't avoid not coming across numerous news reports, both domestic Indian and foreign, about what is becoming an increasingly important event for both Indian and international car manufacturers. And like this week's North American International Auto Show in Detroit, much of the attention is on electric-drive vehicles from the Hyundai i10 concept EV to the Maruti Suzuki SX4 hybrid sedan. Unlike Detroit, two-wheel and three-wheeled vehicles are also included in the show, especially since they represent the lion's share of personal vehicles still in India.
The growing prosperity in India is why we're hearing more about the Auto Expo, which first came up on my radar -- and much of the rest of the world -- with the launch of the sensational $2,500 Tata Nano two years ago. This year, instead of the rumored introduction of both a hybrid and electric version of the Nano, Tata displayed a trio of wholly conventional, IC engine cars, or as Nick Kurczewski at the New York Times put it...
"Tata Motors has used the New Delhi show to pull the dust covers off nothing more exciting than a series of bulky new trucks and cross-over vehicles.The company did, however, display its forthcoming Indica electric car (pictured below), which is planning to offer in "selected" European markets, presumably beginning in Norway where it's been collaborating with Miljobil Grenland and Electrovaya starting in 2008.
The other stand-out EV of the Auto Expo is Hyundai's i10, which the Times of India notes is...
Slated for a limited series production run in 2010 in Hyundai's home market of South Korea, the i10 Electric can cover 160 km with a single battery charge and touch a top speed of 130 km an hour.Not without some sense of irony, the unveiling of the i10 was delayed when Bollywood actor Shahrukh Khan was stalled in traffic, already a significant problem in the streets of India's major cities, and one likely to grow only worse by the growth of auto industry, electric or otherwise.
The third electric car that I'd like to highlight is yet another interesting collaboration of East and West, in this case Chevrolet and Reva, the Bangalore electric car maker. The Chevy eSpark is based on GM's global small car platform and the electric drive system comes from Reva. Various online sources indicate the car will go into limited production of 5,000 units annually and sell for around 7 Lakh or the rough equivalent of about $15,000 starting as early as this October.
Tata Indica Electric Car
Hyundai i10 EV with Bollywood star Shahrukh Khan
Chevrolet eSpark
Photo credits: Indian Wall Street Journal.
Electric Avenue
Meanwhile, here in the U.S. of A., the 22nd North American International Auto Show commences with two days of press previews starting today (Monday, January 11th). Besides the unveiling of Toyota's new small hybrid, as well as other electric-drive vehicle roll-outs, for the first time an area said to be the size of two hockey rinks (37,000 square feet or one-third of a hectare) is set aside on the main floor of Cobo Hall for what's called "Electric Avenue," which will feature some 20 electric vehicles and serve as a venue for demonstrations and educational presentations.
Presumably we can count on the now usual suspects to debut: Chevrolet Volt, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Nissan LEAF, Th!nk City (more below) etc. One car that I know will be there is the Venturi Volage, the exotic test bed for Michelin's Active Wheel drive system. Also likely to be on Electric Avenue is the BMW Concept ActiveE and the Volvo C30 EV. By the time you read this, we should have a better idea what the other 15 or so models will be.
Think Comes to Indiana
With a fresh transfusion of capital -- largely courtesy of Ener1 with a 31% stake in the company and its friends -- along with renegotiated debt levels, Think is not only back in business with cars starting to roll off the Valmet production line in Finland, but the company now has selected the site for its North American production; and as you might expect, they chose Indiana; Elkhart County to be exact. While the company had narrowed the search down to several locales, the fact that EnerDel, owned by Ener1, has its battery plant located in Indianapolis, 150 miles to the south down US 31, had to weigh heavily in the decision. It's also only about 200 miles to Detroit and 112 miles to Chicago.
The US$43.5 million (€30 M) plant, which is being funded in part by U.S. government loans as part of the DOE's Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing initiative, will have the capacity to produce 20,000 all-electric cars annually. Production is slated to begin in 2011.
The Battery Cost Brouhaha
One of the most important EV events of last week was the official inauguration of production at GM's new Brownstown battery plant (video here). With dozens of political dignitaries from the Governor to local officials, along with scores of media and GM employees, the first production battery to be assembled entirely in the plant was rolled out for all to see. This event clearly represents a tipping point in my mind, not only for General Motors and the Volt program, but for the larger the electric vehicle industry. While it also is a huge gamble on GM's part -- most other OEMs have other people build their batteries for them, including even Toyota through its PEVE joint venture with Panasonic -- GM is the first large, mainline OEM to make this scale of investment; BYD being possibly the other carmaker to do so.
But if you are to believe the likes of the Boston Consulting Group (as well as the National Research Council and Jon Petersen), it's a gamble that may not pay off until decades from now when battery costs finally reach an affordable price range; the US DOE's target being $250 per kilowatt hour of energy. BCG, for example sees, " substantial challenges to achieving this goal by 2020."
Their study concludes...
...that the long-term cost target used by many carmakers in planning their future fleets of electric cars --$250 per kilowatt-hour (kWh)-- is unlikely to be achieved unless there is a major breakthrough in battery chemistry that substantially increases the energy a battery can store without significantly increasing the cost of either battery materials or the manufacturing process.There is only one tinsey, winsey problem with this: GM is claiming they are already "hundreds" of dollars below the current +/- $1000/kWh cost range being cited by the BCG and NRC in producing their battery pack for the Volt. While CNET speculates the number is $500/kWh, making the cost of the Volt 16kWh pack at the top of this newsletter about $8000, GM spokesman Rob Petersen reminds me that the company has not given such an exact number, only that it is hundreds less than what is assumed to be the current cost. He also makes an interesting dig about how people who've never built a battery in their life can presume to know what it costs.
BCG's analysis suggests that by 2020, the price that OEMs pay for NCA batteries will decrease by 60 to 65 percent, from current levels of $990-$1,220 per kWh to $360-$440 per kWh. So the cost for a 15-kWh NCA range-extender pack would fall from around $16,000 to about $6,000. The price to consumers will similarly fall, from $1,400-$1,800 per kWh to $570-$700 per kWh--or $8,000-$10,000 for the same pack.
Neither GM or any other battery maker is going to reveal their cost per kilowatt hour for obvious competitive reasons. We'll know what they cost, in general terms someday when you have to buy a replacement after the pack goes out of warranty, but that's not likely to happen until sometime after 2022.
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The Life Expectancy of Transformers
With all the focus of late on battery costs and the capacity of the grid to charge millions of plug-in vehicles in the coming decade, one interesting "wrinkle" has largely gone unnoticed: transformers; those ubiquitous gray canisters suspended from power poles or planted in backyards (that's where mine is). There are tens of millions of them, most of them oil cooled, or like mine, air cooled. They step down the voltage flowing into your neighborhood to residential levels.
It turns out that like everything else in our material world, they have a useful life span, typically around 17 years, according to a new report entitled, Power System Level Impacts of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, produced by the Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC).
The Center investigated what impact, if any the deployment of up to three plug-in electric vehicles might have on a the average neighborhood transformer and arrived at some interesting conclusions, which begin on page 208 of the 233-page report. They estimated that a single PHEV on a neighborhood transformer would result in a loss-of-life (LOL) of nearly 12%; two would shorten its life by nearly 29% and three would decrease its nominal service life by a whooping 43.7%. The report states...
...if it is assumed that an average distribution transformer would operate for 150,000 hours (17.1 years), then the added impact of one PHEV decreases this expected lifetime to 132,015 hours (15.1 years). Similarly, the added impact of two PHEVs decreases it to 106,740 hours (12.2 years) and the added impact of three PHEVs decreases this expected lifetime to 84,390 hours (9.6 years).This means that transformers will have to be replaced more frequently and at a not-insubstantial-cost, as well as profit. Continues the PSERC study...
If the failure rate of a specific hypothetical utility company with a fleet of 3 million transformers was originally 10% per year. Then assume that as the penetration of PHEVs reaches significant levels the failure rate of transformers increases to 17% per year (on average all transformers load increases due to one PHEV) the impact on the entire utility companies transformer fleet would increase significantly. Specifically, originally 10% failure rate indicates 300,000 transformers would fail in a single year. Increasing this failure rate to 17% would indicate 510,000 transformers would fail in a typical year with the added electric load due to PHEV.
In economic terms, consider an assumption that purchasing and installing a new transformer costs $750. Then replacing the original failed transformers required an annual budget of $225 million. Whereas, the increased number of failures including the PHEV electrical load would cost $382.5 million. This increase in utility company expenditures would be offset utility company added revenue generated by the added electric load demand created by the added PHEV. Assuming 3 million PHEVs each adding 16 kWh per day charge 8 cents per kWh represents added annual revenue of $1,401.6 million, indicating approximately, $1,019.1 million in net profit.
Is Indonesia Being Taken for a Ride?
What does "Hydrogen High-speed Rail Super Highway" mean to you? If you're as confused I was, permit me to explain.
Imagine a series of traincar-like pods, each carrying maybe 30-50 passengers, zipping along an elevated rail system at bullet train speeds, powered by a solar-generated hydrogen maglev system conceptualized by Justin Sutton and based on his Interstate Traveler idea, which is certainly an interesting, though wholly unproven technology.
This is what is being proposed for development on the Indonesian island of Java; a high-speed passenger and freight system spanning 357 km (221 mi) connecting Jakarta, Bandung, and Cirebon. It's a bold and expensive idea estimated to cost $3 Billion; and it just was awarded a contract for a 90-day feasibility study. While the project has the blessing of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce that claims it will create an equally amazing 6 million jobs, it has its critics, one of them being Yonah Freemark, who looked into the background of some of the consortium members and found a few potential skeletons in closets. He writes....
Based on this history, it's unsurprising that some Indonesians are a bit suspicious of Global Green's investment in this project — especially since it's combined with the dubious technology offered by Interstate Traveler. If the money isn't there and the vehicles don’t work, in whose interest is this line being considered?
Regardless, the risks may be worth taking. After all, if the government’s not being asked to contribute any funds to the line, what’s the worst that could happen if the project fails, or if it never even gets off the ground?
Targeting Plug-In Car Incentives
Writing in the journal Energy Policy, Steven Skerlos with University of Michigan and James Winebrake, chair of the Department of Science, Technology and Society/Public Policy at Rochester Institute of Technology, published an article that urges the crafting of plug-in vehicle policies and incentives where "the social benefits of electric-boosted cars are strongest, and recognizing the circumstances of consumers -- such as their income, life stage and family size -- gives PHEVs a better shot at both sales and environmental and energy security effectiveness."
The authors contend that "blanket subsidies such as those currently in place, are clearly sub-optimal." Instead they see the need for four guiding policy criteria that will provide more "bang" for the subsidy buck, including focusing efforts on:
- Regions with low-carbon power grids
- Regions with high vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT)
- Regions with sub-standard air quality
- Regions with appropriate buyer demographics
[H]igh-income consumers are more likely to buy a cutting-edge green car with less resistance to cost, sending a flag that subsidies could be more effective to enable lower income consumers buy PHEVs.
The use of tax dollars to subsidize purchases of PHEVs by people who would have bought them anyway should be questioned.
The NE and NEV
Finally, we are hoping to end Nebraska's isolation as an island barren of neighborhood electric vehicles, when all the states surrounding us now allow Low-speed vehicles on public streets. There is a chance legislation could be introduced this year in our Unicameral -- the only such state legislature in America which has only one law-making body: here all our representatives are Senators -- to permit their use in Nebraska communities.
Just as I finish this edition, Lisa Johns with my State Senator's office, informed me that they should have a draft measure soon, one that will make the January 21, 2010 deadline. I don't know what it will look like, but here is the "wish list" I submitted for their consideration:
- At a minimum, such vehicles are in full compliance with U.S. DOT standard FMVSS 500.
- Is registered and licensed for operation in the state
- Carry proof of liability insurance
- Operated solely by drivers with motor vehicle operator permits or learner's permit.
- Are capable of speeds of no more than 35 mph as certified by the manufacturer
- Are powered solely by electric motor with energy storied in batteries, capacitors or similar energy storage device
- Shall have a minimum of 3 three wheels
- Shall have an enclose-able passenger cabin (doors may be removable for summer-time operation).
- Carry manufacturer VIN
- Are operated in accordance with all other applicable motor vehicle laws and regulations.
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