Plug-In Electric Vehicles Forecast to Capture 22% Market By 2030

Plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles also have potential to make up 9% of auto sales by 2020.

Published: 05-Nov-2010

New York, NY – Plug-in electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles, have the potential to make up 9% of auto sales in 2020 and 22% in 2030 (1.6 million and 4 million vehicle sales respectively), according to research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Achieving such growth levels, however, will be dependent on two key factors - aggressive reductions in battery costs and rising gasoline prices.

In the short term, price will be the most significant limitation to the uptake of both plug-in hybrid vehicles like the GM Volt and fully electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf. The median base price of autos sold between July 2009 and June 2010 in the US was $21,800. By comparison, the Nissan Leaf will cost $26,280 after federal subsidies (including an a! llowance for charger installation), which is a higher price point than three quarters of all new auto sales.

The forecast is based on first identifying the ‘addressable market’ for plug-in vehicles – those consumer segments which can afford the vehicle, have suitable range requirements and have access to an appropriate location for charging. The second step models the proportion of consumers within the addressable market that might actually purchase such a vehicle.

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