Lithium Battery Cost to Drop to Under $400/kWh

Lux Research prediction for 2020 falls short of $150/kWh target from the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) and not enough to reach the mass market.

Published: 29-Mar-2012

BOSTON -- Early demand for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles has fallen short of optimistic projections, as vehicles like the Chevy Volt have missed sales targets. The key to growing the market is reducing the cost of Li-ion batteries, according to a Lux Research report. While larger-scale production will help reduce costs, the effect of scale-up and likely technology improvements bring nominal battery pack cost only to $397/kWh in 2020 – far short of the $150/kWh target from the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) and not enough to reach the mass market.

“Searching for Innovations to Cut Li-ion Battery Costs”
“Vehicle applications demand a different scale in both size and performance, and no other incumbent technology combines the power and energy performance of Li-ion batteries,” said Kevin See, Lux Research Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Searching for Innovations to Cut Li-ion Battery Costs.”

“Plug-in vehicles’ fates are tied to the cost of Li-ion batteries, so developers need to focus on the innovations that have biggest impact on cost,” he added.

To see what technologies can impact Li-ion battery cost, Lux Research studied the cost structure of Li-ion batteries, and considered the innovations that could drive disruptive decreases in cost necessary to spur growth of the electric vehicle market. Among their conclusions:

For more information, please click here to register for the complimentary Lux Research webinar, “Materials Innovation and Cost Cutting Strategies for Li-ion Batteries in Transportation,” on April 3rd at 11:00 EDT.

The report titled, “Searching for Innovations to Cut Li-ion Battery Costs,” is part of the Lux Research Electric Vehicles Intelligence service.

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