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RMI: How the War in Ukraine Marks the End of the Fossil Fuel Era

19 Apr 2022 | Abstracted from GreenBiz

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine means that global demand for fossil fuels has very likely peaked - for good. The world’s policymakers have been working toward this tipping point for years. And now, the twin forces of national security and energy economics are driving permanent system change away from fossil fuels quicker than ever...

"The math behind peaking demand for fossil fuels is not complex. If we take BP data for the decade to 2020, global energy demand has grown at 1 percent per year. Solar and wind supply grew at an average rate of 20 percent per year over the decade and made up around 4.4 percent of primary energy supply in 2021. A year of even 15 percent growth would see them make up 0.66 percentage points of the growth in total energy supply.

"In other words, under a steady-state environment, solar and wind are meeting about two thirds of the growth in energy demand. Added output from hydro, nuclear, and biomass supply is enough to make up the rest of the demand growth. This leaves very little room for incremental demand for fossil fuels."

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