Photo Credit: Fair Use [17 U.S.C. § 107] Recurrent Auto graph showing ICE car replacement targets.
Gas Cars Will Start to Disappear Sooner Than You Think
12 Jul 2025 | Abstracted from Recurrent Auto
"It turns out that when a state approaches 30% new EV sales, that's the tipping point for the number of gas cars on the road falling...Each year, there are 15-16M new cars sold in the US, while 12M exit the road permanently
"...we actually only have to get to 4M new EV sales per year nationally before the number of gas cars begins its inexorable decline. That's because 16M - 12M cars = 4M. Once EVs surpass that number, there will be fewer gas cars."
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